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I wasn't able to get this done yesterday, but I decided to add some new charts to the OP. One will be a separate daily chart from the first comparison chart, this one showing grosses for Week 4 onward. There is also a lead/deficit chart added as well.

I will continue to do weekly updates out to Week 8, after which point I will do one final update once the movie is gone from theaters.

As for this past week, Spider-Man had a Week 4 gross of nearly $42.2M, still strong but again unremarkable. It had a softer drop than I was expecting for the weekend, with the decline being noticeably smaller than the norm for the fourth weekend of a mid-December release. However, it still had a fairly normal drop for the weekday period. Here's what the week-over-week drops looked like for each day of Week 4, compared to the other four of the Top 5 December films of the past decade (i.e., the Star Wars films).

No Way Home had a softer weekday period drop than TLJ and Rogue one did in their fourth week, but about on par with TFA and TRoS, so based on the admittedly small sample size of December mega-blockbusters that had more normal blockbuster trajectories (meaning excluding Titanic and Avatar), Spidey was within the norm.

Overall, after four weeks in theaters, No Way Home had reached a total gross of $677.9M, the third-largest total in inflation-adjusted terms of any film ever.

Looking at what most past blockbusters did, No Way Home must have grossed 85-95% of its lifetime total within the first four weeks. Looking at where it's at in both absolute terms and rate of decline relative to other big films, it's probably closer to 95%. For example, it's declining at a faster rate than Black Panther did, and is now starting to gross less on a weekly basis, it's lead over Black Panther starting to erode as shown in the lead/deficit chart in the OP. However, it's still outpacing Infinity War. So, its post-Week 4 gross will likely fall between those two films. If this continues to hold true, it could still get to $750M, but $800M is probably out of the picture at this point.

As PAOerfulone said, this weekend's estimates indicate that No Way Home is at around $698M lifetime. It will likely pass the $700M mark today or Tuesday depending on what the actual official gross for the weekend is, so before the week is out it will pass Black Panther to become the new #2 MCU film to date, and becoming the new #4 movie of the 21st century overall (adjusted gross) is already on lock.


In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").