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Machiavellian said:

I have to say, all these stats really mean nothing right about now. Not sure why I would even care what Joe approval level is only one year in office. Trump first year was at 41% and he still mustered 70+ million votes. No one really even liked Joe but he got 80+ million. At the end of the day, most of these poll this early just means what it always means, if people can find someone to blame for their situation they will. Until its election season is when we will see how people actual mindsets are going, this early in the game is just noise.

Well...yes and no.

First of all, the presidential election is three years away, sure, but there are also midterm elections coming up in 10 months and the outcome tends to reflect the sitting president's job approval rating. The outcome of that, in turn, will shape what's possible...and not...for the rest of Biden's first, and probably last, term.

Secondly, yes, this probably is Biden's last term as president. I mean yeah, the presidential election is three years away, but I would point out that no sitting president who polled as badly as Biden is now during their first year in office won their next election. In fact, Donald Trump and Gerald Ford are the only two presidents so far who've had worse first years in office, and they were both defeated. They were also both Republicans, which makes Joe Biden the least popular Democratic president in the history of routine on the subject relative to this point in his tenure. Democrats who were faring better than him at the analogous point, like Jimmy Carter for example, went on to defeat. There's no historical precedent for someone in Biden's position getting re-elected is my point. I also just can't picture it happening in my mind. I mean the man can barely function as things are and will be 81 years old (almost 82, in fact) by election day. If for no reason other than that, I have a difficult time imagining America electing him to a second term.

Its like the last stat on handling Covid. No matter what you do, everything is either sugar or shit, nothing in between. You do nothing, they complain, you do something its not enough or its to much. Joe was never going to be the savior and if America really want Trump back in office well so be it but that day is long from now and I still doubt he will run. Only if he believe that enough people get into play that can totally seal the deal for him would he run but lets see how things shake out.

You're too much of an optimist. Trump needs to be elected president if only to evade his current, ongoing legal troubles. He has every motivation to run again, is telegraphing intent to run again, and polls in the lead for the Republican nomination by a margin of more than 50 percentage points consistently, which is just a tough temptation for any prospective candidate to ignore. He'll definitely run again, and what's more will almost certainly be the next Republican nominee. The only question in my mind is whether he'll be elected president again in 2024. Actually, scratch that: a second question in my mind is why I should care one way or the other.

Seriously, the prospects I hear named routinely as Democratic candidates for 2024 are President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Transportation Secretary Buttigieg, while the ones I routinely hear named as prospective candidates for the Republican nomination are obviously former President Trump, former Vice President Pence, and Florida Governor DeSantis. I have exactly zero interest in supporting any of those six candidates based on the performance of their respective duties so far, and can't help feeling like I'm probably far from alone in that sentiment. None of them are qualified.

Moreover, I find it downright depressing that the most likely 2024 scenario is factually just a rematch between Biden and Trump, who will both be in the neighborhood of 80 years old by then; by far the oldest candidates ever nominated by a major party for that position. And I mean who would be the alternative that progressives would support anyway? Let me guess: Bernie Sanders again, who will also be around 80 years old by that time? It's just like how the likely Democratic nominee for Governor of my state this year -- the only one I ever hear about running -- is Beto O'Rourke again. You see what I mean? It goes to show that, as with our movies, music, TV shows, video games, etc. etc., this country runs on nostalgia anymore. Both parties are clearly out of new candidates and out of ideas. If our choice in 2024 indeed winds up, as expected, to be a Biden vs. Trump rematch, the two dumbest, most dangerously incompetent people I've ever seen elected to the presidency, I think the very idea will yield exhaustion and exasperation from the public and an unusually large vote for third party, and possibly independent, candidates on the part of affluent, college educated, suburban voters (the people whom the Libertarians and the Greens appeal to) and an even higher rate of abstention than usual among working class voters (who, like me, are mostly "big government moderates", as I've been called; people who support increased public investment in the armed forces and police departments and also an expanded social safety net, and accordingly have no party that caters to their program in its entirety).

Anyway, on Covid, yeah, that's fair; you can't please everyone. I'm actually one of those people who's kind of with Biden on that specific issue. I felt during the summer he wasn't doing enough to combat the delta surge, but after he came out with the vaccine mandate, I felt more positively about his stance on Covid. Many liberals gripe that the current omicron surge shows he still ain't doing enough, but honestly I don't know what else he could possibly do that's within reason. He could lock the country down again and that would help slow the spread, but is that really reasonable? Or fair to the vast majority of us who are vaxxed already? Whatever. I don't think we even can beat omicron given its ability to evade basic vaccinations and I also don't care that much because of how much milder it is than earlier strains. It's a good thing in the long run that it's becoming the overwhelmingly dominant strain. That's how pandemics often end in the real world; they get more contagious by getting weaker because vaccines stop the more severe, deadlier strains, and we become able to live with them as a result. Liberals have to get over their idealistic ambition to eliminate every single Covid case in this country. It ain't gonna happen, clearly. Not by a long shot. Clearly more people than not are in Covid fatigue mode right now, including me. I'm part of that growing "vaxxed and done" camp you've been hearing about more lately. I feel that I've done my civic duty and cannot save other people from themselves and shouldn't be somehow expected to. That can't be the goal here.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 11 January 2022