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Box Office Mojo finally updated their site with all the final actual figures for No Way Home through to this past weekend. Most of the data points on the charts I put up the other day weren't too far off, not enough to make a visible difference.

For this past weekend, NWH dropped 33.7% from the previous weekend, resulting in a 3-day haul of just barely over $56M. This brings the films LTD domestic gross to $613M. With the $600M mark being passed on Sunday, it became the third-fastest film to pass that milestone, doing so in only 17 days.

While NWH had a softer drop this past weekend than Infinity War or Black Panther did in their third weekends, it was still a weaker third weekend in absolute terms. Overall, it was only the sixth-largest third weekend for a film ever, unadjusted, though it would be down at 8th place adjusted, possibly 9th. Nevertheless, it remains ahead in LTD terms compared to everything except Endgame and The Force Awakens, though its lead over Infinity War and Black Panther has diminished slightly.

However, as we move into the post-New Year's slump, we should expect significant drops. Based on what happened with other mid-December blockbusters, we should probably expect at minimum a 70% drop for the weekday period this week, possibly closer to 75%. This would give us a Mon.-Thu. gross of around $22-26M, putting Week 3's total gross at around $78-82M, which would in turn put the film's LTD gross after three weeks at somewhere in the $635-639M range.

While December is typically a strong month for theaters, there are actually not very many mega-blockbuster titles that were December titles, though they have become more commonplace this century. The only December titles released since 2000 that have adjusted lifetime grosses over $500M are The Lord of the Rings films, Avatar, and the Disney-era Star Wars films sans Solo (for reference, the only December releases from 1975-1999 to gross over $500M adjusted were Titanic, Beverly Hills Cop, Tootsie, and Superman). Of those, the Star Wars films had the most typical big blockbuster box office trajectory, with very strong opening weekends and being relatively front-loaded, with pronounced drops week after week, while the others were more slow-burning films that were not very front-loaded.

So, using the Star Wars films as our references, we can make a likely range of projections about where No Way Home could end up lifetime. They made anywhere from 10% to 18% of their lifetime grosses after their third weeks (TFA was the one with the 18% figure, so NWH will likely be towards the lower end), so if No Way Home manages somewhere in this range and is sitting at $635M by this coming Thursday, it should still pass the $700M mark lifetime. Even if we want to use absolute grosses as a reference, if Spidey does at least well post-Week 3 as The Last Jedi or Rogue One, it should still pass $700M. That is unless it drops faster than expected in the coming weeks. For example, we don't know what effects, if any, the omicron spike will have (e.g., possible theater closures in certain areas).

In any case, at this point there is a very high likelihood that No Way Home will pass the $700M mark, and if it does pass that milestone it would be one of fewer than 20 titles in the "Blockbuster era" of film to do so. Regardless of where it ends up, it will soon pass Spider-Man 2002 as the highest-grossing Spider-Man film ever in adjusted terms.

The charts in the OP should be updated by time you read this.


In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").