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Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Machina said:

1) It isn't only Xbox that's bigger; they're all bigger for October. Switch by 52k, PS5 by 28k, and XS by 99k - and our Switch figure ended up being much closer to NPD's in the end. 

Whenever Will's estimates end up being off then he adjusts them - he always does.

2) Exactly. 

You are ignoring that only the Xbox numbers are very much larger than the WELFARE estimates.

And this is a comparison with Welfare's numbers, not an actual estimate.

One more thing, if Nintendo is right about being in line with NPD, does that mean that NPD is the right number for VGC?

Comparisons can be made for past months.can you give us the data for VGC's previous usa months?

2) I am not sure.

Ampere estimates the Xbox number to be 6.7million by September. This is not in line with ZhugeEX and welfare's estimate that Xbox has sold over 8million. Which does VGC think is correct ?

On the other hand trunkswd claims that ps5 numbers are in line with Ampere's estimate of 12.8million.

1) Bit rich of you to accuse me of ignoring something - all you've done is cherry pick throughout to try and make us look bad. And each time we answer you, you go off on some other tangent.

Yes, we consider NPD more accurate than our own initial estimates and we always adjust if needed whenever NPD figures (or a range) leak. 

Go get the data yourself, it's publicly available on the site.

2) At the moment we're sceptical of the Ampere estimates. They could be right be we need more points of reference/corroboration before we'll change anything. Why?

Firstly, their figure for Switch is extraordinarily low (would you like us to lower our Switch estimate up to October by 1.8 million too?), even if taking into account stock build up for the OLED launch, and that calls into question all of their figures.

Secondly, according to Zhuge they're essentially using the same tracker data we eventually get and then projecting it worldwide to get overall totals. They don't have more data than we have, but their model for extrapolating it is producing some much lower global estimates. 

Thirdly, their figures for XS (and NS) are significantly lower than other analysts and reports have indicated, including the Zhuge and Welfare ones I linked you to earlier in the thread, as well as other news articles. We treat all of these with some scepticism, but at the moment they all point to our XS figure being more accurate than Ampere's.

Ampere's estimates could be better than ours, and if this proves to be the case then we will gladly adjust, as we always have done since Trunks took over producing our figures.

Last edited by Machina - on 20 November 2021