It was indeed a "Captain Obvious" prediction to make in Nov. 2020. The PS4 has had especially bad post-replacement legs since stock was wiped out by that point and Sony was clearly unable (and possibly also unwilling) to ramp up production. If we had a more normal market situation over the past 20 months and sales didn't crater because of lack of stock, the PS4 likely would have had post-replacement sales competitive with the 3DS's. It still may not have beaten the 3DS, but it would have been a much tougher call to make. If it had a post-replacement to pre-replacement sales ratio that was the same proportionally as the PS3's, it could have sold another 11-12M, so it could have been real close between it and the 3DS.