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SKMBlake said:

I noticed your lack of faith in the extremes, but I did vote 150+ million back then and I still vote the same now.

And my favourite release is still Super Mario Odyssey, didn't get this amount of hype for any other game, ever.

The extreme in the previous poll was 160m+.

Personally, I went two notches higher this time, to 150-160m. It doesn't feel overly optimistic when the yearly breakdown looks like this:

End of 2021 - 103m shipped
2022 - 123m (20m)
2023 - 138m (15m)
2024 - 147m (9m)
2025 - 151m (4m)
Rest of Life - 2-8m for a total of 153-159m

It's up in the air how many price cuts and revisions Nintendo will issue. The above is without a Switch Pro-like upgrade.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments