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Thank you all for participating in this thread. I am a few weeks late on the final update, but I wanted to do it late better than not closing the thread. There have been major adjustments in my personal life which have made it hard for me to add any more work, but I still wanted to thank you all for making this thread fun for me and for all of you.

Hopefully given the fun I've had, I may run another such thread in the future, let me know your opinions in the final poll.


Hey guys, many of you were split on the value of the OLED. Now put your money where your mouth is and predict its sales!

How much do you think the Switch will sell, combined, in the OLED's opening week.

Feel free to break it down Switch, Switch OLED, Switch Lite, but start with the combined sales.

Feel free to offer weekly sales or to post by region

Here are the results so far (thanks to @Zippy6 and @trunkswd for the numbers):

Week Sales (According to VGC) After adjustments Voters that got the right bracket
Week 1 (Oct 9th 2021) 861k  858k  7 (11.48%)
Week 2 (Oct 16th 2021) 383k  405k  2 (5.88%)
Week 3 (Oct 23rd 2021) 481k  482k  5 (25.00%)
Week 4 (Oct 30th 2021) 422k  445k  4 (16.00%)
Week 5 (Nov 6th 2021) 479k  515k  8 of 11 (72.72%)
Week 6 (Nov 13th 2021) 529k  554k 2 of 10 (20.00%)
Week 7 (Nov 20th 2021) 750k  731k 4 of 12 (33.33%)
Week 8 (Nov 27th 2021) 1.6M 1.526M (4 of 14) 3 of 14 (21.42%)
Week 9 (Dec 4th 2021) 1.18M 1.098M 3 of 11 (27.27%)
Week 10 (Dec 11th 2021) 1.25M 1.118M 3 of 6 (50.00%)
Week 11 (Dec 18th 2021) 1.315M 1.139M 0 of 6 (0.00%)
Week 12 (Dec 25th 2021) Missing 1.083M 3 of 6 (50%)

Here are the polls, week by week :)

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Week 10 (Dec 11th 2021)

Week 11 (Dec 18th 2021)

Week 12 (Dec 25th)

My predictions

For me, worldwide, week-by-week until Christmas:

Date starting


Updated Prediction 1 Week Before Comments True Sales per VGC
Week 1 Oct 9th 1.1M N/A I was expecting some big numbers, but stock shortages caused lower sales 862k
Week 2 Oct 16th 800k 500k I was expecting a drop from 861k, but not as drastic as returning to pre-OLED numbers.  378k
Week 3 Oct 23rd 650k 400k Having seen the results of the week prior, I undershot. 474k
Week 4 Oct 29th 700k 600k Having undershot the week prior, I overshot. The numbers ended up going down. 425k
Week 5 Nov 6th 750k 500k Well, I was close this time :) 479k
Week 6 Nov 13th 800k 600k Many of us are adjusting well our predictions against supply constraint. 529k
Week 7 Nov 20th 900k 750k Hit this prediction head on 750k
Week 8 Nov 27th 1.7M 1.2M Damn, I screwed this one up! :) My initial prediction was closer on this one. 1.6M
Week 9 Dec 4th 1.3M 1.5M
Week 10 Dec 11th 1.4M 1.3M Overshot a tiny bit but still close :) 1.25M
Week 11 Dec 18th 1.55M 1.4M Going more middle-ground this time, I think I will hit it. 1.315M
Week 12 Dec 25th N/A 9.5M Low-balling a bit more this week 1.083M

Last edited by padib - on 17 February 2022