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ANNOUNCEMENT - Start of the NFL Season and Prediction League

I still have to update the fourth post of this thread with the latest version of the prediction league rules, but since we've exclusively veterans signed up, I don't think this will be a problem. You all know how to submit picks and predictions, so the only uncertainties are the new Hero Pick rule and this year's playoff system.

Hero Pick

The new bonus point opportunity goes into effect for any game in every week that meets the following condition: Only up to three (under 30%) of the submitted picks by the deadline were for the underdog in the matchup. To clarify this further in precise numbers for each scenario of picks, starting at 12 picks - a number of players we'll most probably not have this season - here are the thresholds that cannot be exceeded. Otherwise the game in question ceases to be a hero pick opportunity and therefore belongs into the ordinary toss-up category.

3 out of 12
3 out of 11
2 out of 10
2 out of 9
2 out of 8
2 out of 7
1 out of 6
1 out of 5
1 out of 4
0 out of 3

Remember that the number of submitted picks is what counts, not the number of signed up players. So in case we have a Thursday game where only 6 players submit a pick, there's only one person who can go against the grain and be a hero.

The reasons why I decided on the above numbers where 3 out of 11 and 2 out of 7 exceed the originally proposed 25% threshold are more excitement and simplicity. Based on the currently signed up players (9), we'll effectively have 2 out of X almost every time this season, so it's easy to remember.

Since the games' eligibility for hero picks only gets locked in upon their respective kickoff, it's possible that the status of games can change within the final hour before kickoff. This provides an additional tactical element that swings in both directions.

Successful hero picks will be marked blue in the spreadsheet as opposed to the regular green. Every successful hero pick grants an additional PP in the standings.

Playoff tournament mode

Typically, the playoffs are a knockout round from start to finish, but the minimum number of players should be 12. Since it's not looking like we'll have that many players to begin with, here's the alternative:

A minileague where everyone starts at 0 will span the wild card games and divisional round of the NFL, so that's 10 games to predict with winner and margin of victory as usual. Players will be ranked based on record, followed by lower point differential totals - the total amount of points you've been off with your predicted margins of victory - to break any potential ties. Should there still be ties after this step, then the player who was better during the regular season comes out on top.

As usual, a certain number of picks must have been submitted during the regular season to be eligible for the playoffs. In the past, this used to be 230 picks, but since the NFL added an additional week of games this season, the new number is 245.

The home field advantage of the old days will take on an adjusted form: Every player, except the lowest ranked one of the regular season, will receive a cushion that is calculated against the lowest ranked player of the regular season. This one-time number will then have to do for the total of the 10 games to predict.

The four best players of the minileague will then advance to the semifinals, #1 vs. #4 and #2 vs. #3. Since these rankings can potentially greatly differ from what we've seen during the regular season, the HFA rule is adjusted to a straight-forward 5 points for #1 and 3 points for #2 in order to give a guaranteed incentive to not only finish among the top 4 in the minileague, but win it.

The final won't have an HFA rule as usual, so the traditional Super Bowl rules of the prediction league apply.


On Tuesday I'll send a PM to all participants of the prediction league to let everyone have a fair chance to submit a bracket and get their pick for the Season Opening Game in.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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