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The NPD results dropped yesterday for anyone curious. Full details (still sans unit sales numbers, sadly) can be seen over on this thread at Era, or on Mat Piscatella's Twitter.

Whoops. The new replies in the thread didn't show at first when I clicked on it. Looks like everyone's got that info drop covered.

Anywho, the biggest highlight of the month was definitely the Xbox. Restocks, including that big in-store drop at GameStop, helped propel the Series X|S to #1 in HW revenue for the month, and set a new June revenue record for Xbox. The previous record was when the 360 sold 507k in June 2011. The ARP was likely close to but not quite $300; the 360 S also came in a $200 4GB SKU, though from what I gather the HDD-equipped models were always the most popular by far. Assuming an ARP of $280, the 360 would have generated $142M in revenue. If we assume the Series X|S broke 4:1 in the Series X's favor, that would give us an ARP of $460/unit. If the Series X|S grossed, say, $145M, then at $460/unit it would have sold 315k units. If the percent of XBS sales coming from the Series X was lower, then that number increases. Given the revenue figures, it's unlikely that the XBS sold any less than 300k units. In fact, it could have sold substantially more. If it grossed $150M at an ARP of $450, that would get it up to 400k units.

Not only does this show how much pent-up demand there is for these new systems, but it also shows that this generation is still far from settled. Being Xbox's best market, the U.S. always has the potential for it to be competitive between PS and Xbox. Once we start getting to the point where supply is able to adequately meet demand, we should start to get a clearer picture of how this generation will play out, but as of now it's still anyone's game.

To expand on what the XBS's performance means for the other systems, well, assuming $150M in revenue for it that would leave $251M for everything else. Assuming the PS4 & XBO are only 5% of the total revenue, that would leave $231M for the Switch and PS5. Assuming those systems had a SKU split 3:1 in favor of the hybrid and Blu-ray models, respectively, and the PS4 sold 250k, then the Switch would have sold around 410k. If the PS4 sold closer to 230k, the Switch may have sold closer to 440k. If the Switch sold about 500k, though, that would put the PS5 potentially under the 200k mark. Between the two of them, though, the PS5 & Switch sold somewhere between 650-700k, unless the SKU split was much closer than 3:1 in the cheaper models' favor. For example, if it was a 50/50 hybrid/Lite and digital/BD split, then if the PS5 sold 250k the Switch would have sold 474k. If the Switch sold only 425k, the PS5 would have sold 277k. Of course, if the PS4 & XBO had a larger combined revenue share, say, 10%, that would reduce the combined revenue share of the Switch & PS5. But in any case, the PS5 likely sold over 200k and the Switch over 400k. Hopefully we'll get better numbers at some point.

EDIT: I had a complete brain fart and forgot to calculate the 360's HW revenue. I'll have to readjust some stuff later (about to leave for most of the day). Shouldn't make a huge difference, but it needs to be done. Done. Had to excise a whole paragraph that became unnecessary and rewrite some other stuff. But I also added another paragraph.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 30 July 2021

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