Last fiscal year report Jan-Mar showed 4.5M to 7.8M units manufactured, 3.3M per that quarter. If we assume manufacturing has't decreased and not yet increased, we get another 3.3M units, so 11.1M by June 30.
I saw a stealth adjustment on the front page. it was 9.19M + 200k = 9.34M now, so a downward stealth edit of 50k. I'd guess somehow you are insisting on the wrong direction (unless the Sony fj report was "stacked" which I find unlikely). Can't wait to see the next quarterly report...
Oh so it's an educated guess then; not that I necessarily disagree with your estimates.
PS4's shipments in its 3rd quarter were down 300k (3M vs 2.7M quarter on quarter) so there's no guarantee we won't see a similar trajectory with PS5. Though it is less likely with the high demand, strong lineup, and Chinese launch taken into account.