I belive the Switch will do what the PS2 did back in 2006, selling 55 more million after the launch of the following console generation.
The same can be said in the other way ..
- 97 million by the end of 2021
- 110 million by the end of 2022
- 116 million by the end of 2023
- 120 million by the end of 2024 or end of production.
Everything is possible ..
Just like no one would predict and say in 2009, that Wii would start to decline so rapidly and barely reach 100M(with only 20M to go, with years reaching almost 25M)..
And just like the DS which in theory should just like any normal console peak in let's say 2007 and then die, but it didn't started to fell of until 2011.
So it can go either way, and still at this point in time no one can be sure 100% what will happen or be certain at either outselling PS2 or even coming short of PS4 lifetime sales (as I already said, the scenario of wii death for example would see switch struggling to reach 120M).
We may have a clearer picture after this or maybe even next year, cuz you may be very good one year and bad the other ..
See PS4. In 2018 it was very strong selling console, everyone here would bet that it will reach at least 130M, and many say even more.. like 140 or 150 at most.
But 2020 it became clear that the console will have hard time reaching even 120M.
Then almost anyone though for example that 2020 was the switch peak year .. and obviously it wasn't .. and even the few that though that 2021 is the peak year of switch were predicting 24-25M at most, but the switch went to 28M..
Again I am not making any statement about what the console will sell.. because I don't know.
Just saying that, as it can go to 150 or 160 in best case scenario, so can go and to below 120M lifetime in the worst case scenario.
There are example for both of the cases with consoles.
Also you example with PS2 is not right .. PS2 did sold close to 60M after next gen launched (xbox 360) however you can not compare home console sales after next gen home console came out, with hybrid (and more portable than home because most of the people get it because they want handheld not home console - nintendo official statement ) that is in the middle of it's life and is not competing with dedicated home consoles such as PS5 and XBSX.Last edited by yo33331 - on 24 January 2021