By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
victor83fernandes said:
padib said:

Today is Feb 2020. The switch was launched on March 3rd 2017 and therefore has been on the market for roughly 3 years.

It will have various models and can have multi-sales due to having a portable incarnation, so it will enjoy sales strength greater than a Nintendo handheld.
It will see various revisions and is seeing strong early success, therefore a sequel will be late for the Switch compared to previous handhelds and home consoles. I believe it will have an 10-year lifespan due to success and scalability of graphical power.

Over the course of these 10 years, it will have a front-loaded curve which will peak in around 2 years and slowly decrease.

Currently the Switch sells on average 16 million per years (AVG 1m per month, and 5 million in December). That number can rise up to 18m within the next 2 years.

Current sales: 50.5m
YoY Feb 2021: 17m (67.5m)
YoY Feb 2022: 18m (75.5m)
YoY Feb 2023: 18m (93.5m)
YoY Feb 2024: 15m (108.5m)
YoY Feb 2025: 13m (121.5m)

The PS4 is selling 10.8m per year right in 2020, in 2019 it was selling ~18m last year. I see this trend for PS4
YoY Feb 2021: 6m (113m)
YoY Feb 2022: 4m (117m)
YoY Feb 2023: 2m (119m)
YoY Feb 2024: 1m (120m)
YoY Feb 2025: 0.5m (120.5m)

In my opinion the Switch will outsell the PS4 during the 2024 holidays.

Nintendo is not keeping the switch for another 5 years, I am 100% certain they will release a new console before then. They never had a console going for 8 years without a successor. Sales will drop fast, just like 3ds, no way the switch would be selling 13 million in 2025, no way, most people who wanted one already have it, unless they would be sold at 120 dollars in 2025.

You expect the ps4 to sell 6 million until next year? I don't know what drugs are you on, but there will be a price drop, games price drops and a thing called Christmas and blackfriday, the ps4 will sell minimum 10 million until next February, easily. And minimum 5million the year after, because of the low prices, there are a lot of poor people who cant afford 450dollars consoles + 60-70 dollars games. I know of people still using a ps3 and still waiting on the ps4 to reach 150dollars with games.

At current pace the ps4 would sell 7 million, but its a slow month, when last of us 2 releases, the ps4 sales will more than double, and then on black Friday with price drop it will triple. 7 million would be the absolute minimum sales possible, there's less than 10% chance of them selling only 7 million. Maybe if sony released the ps5 at 399dollars which is impossible, as the ssd alone costs more than 100 dollars.

Come back to me when its proven that I'm right yet again.

Lmaoooo