When will the switch outsell the ps4?

[javi741]

Tbh I now think the Switch will outsell the PS4 even though around late 2019 to early 2020 i would've said it would be difficult to outsell the PS4. The things that made me change my mind includes how slow PS4 sales been this year and they were lower than my expectations despite the Covid Boost. Plus I remember people arguing that the PS4 should win out because it has far longer legs than Nintendo consoles but after the PS3 and how this gen is looking so far, I dont see the PS4 selling for much longer as Sony doesn't seem to be prioritizing increased PS4 sales anymore. The console is still 299$ which is only 100$ cheaper than a PS5 that is also backwards compatible, why in the world would anyone choose a dying and old PS4 console when for 100$ more you get the future PS and Essentially a fully working PS4. The only way I could see the PS4 being a viable purchase for consumers in the future is if Sony does a major price cut to market it as the budget console where you could get a PS4 for 199$ or even 99$, but I honestly don't see Sony doing that and if they do i think it'll be too late for much of anyone to care. Plus the PS5 isn't like the PS3 where the price was miles too expensive for most consumers which forced many to buy PS2s, the PS5 price isn't crazy high for consumers so I'm sure many will wait to purchase a PS5 rather than settle for just a PS4. The argument that "PS consoles have long legs" shouldve ended long ago as it hasn't happened since the PS2, a two decade old console. The PS3 died relatively quickly after PS4 launch and I expect the same to happen for PS4 due to all the reasons stated above. I think 130M for PS4 seems highly unlikely and maybe 125M is even questionable, at this point I'm expecting the PS4 to hover in the low 120s when all said and done.

Plus, it should be a given that minimum the Switch will sell 120M, I just can't see the Switch falling off in sales so fast to the point where it doesn't reach 120M sold. For the Switch to somehow not reach 120M sold, Switch sales from here on out would need to fall off a cliff so steep that is even steeper than the Wii's cliff. Let's take a bare minimum example to shor you how much the Switch is expected to sell in the future worst case scenario. So its currently exoect that the Switch to begin 2021 is around 78M shipments. Most conservative estimates put the Switch selling around 20M in 2021 so by the end of 2021 the Switch will be at 98M, and lets say switch sales drop to an even more conservative 13M in 2022, Switch sales would be at 111M by 2022, and 2023 lets say Switch 2 gets released and Switch sales drop to 6M. Switch would be at 117M. Even in a worse case scenario the Switch would sell 117M, which easily puts it within reach of the PS4. A more realistic scenario would be the Switch selling 130M, which should be enough to outsell PS4.