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[Ryuu96]

shikamaru317 said:

Ryuu96 said:

I don't believe that rumour about Square Enix selling off its western branch, I do however think Eidos and Crystal Dynamics could be in trouble either way, I believe Deus Ex underperformed, as did Shadow of the Tomb Raider, hence moving both studios onto Avengers which utterly bombed, I feel like Square Enix doesn't know what to do with either studio.

If Square Enix decides to sell them both then I hope Microsoft tries to get them both, they're both good quality studios but Square Enix keeps considering them to be a underperforming one sales wise, seems perfect for Game Pass model where sales won't matter as much but provide Game Pass with high quality releases, let them do what they want instead of chasing trends.

I don't believe Square Enix would give up the IPs though, at most they'd license them out.

Also Microsoft needs to keep an eye on Embracer Group, their recent investor slide revealed that they're in talks with over 100 studios for acquisition purposes, a dozen of which are large scale studios, Microsoft ought to keep its partners close or I could see Embracer Group snatching them up, such as Asobo, not exactly a Microsoft partner but I could see Embracer acquiring Techland too.

Usually it wouldn't be a concern but I am suspicious of Embracer Group now, their growth is absolutely insane, in 3 years they've acquired 46 studios, I believe they're now the biggest publisher in the world in terms of studio count, their market cap is only $1.5bn off Ubisoft's in the span of 3 years of active growth, with multiple large scale acquisitions planned (including publishers) they will easily pass it.

The rate of growth is extremely suspicious, potentially dangerous, if Embracer goes down it would be devastating to the industry but I don't think that will happen anytime soon, I personally think they're either going to create their own subscription service (rival to Game Pass) or cash out to a major player (sell to Amazon, Google or Tencent).

It has been interesting to watch them over the years and I don't see them slowing down at all, if anything they're going to speed up in acquisitions.

This is correct, both Deus Ex: Mankind Divided and Shadow of the Tomb Raider underperformed.

Deus Ex: Human Revolution sold 2.1m in just the first 3 months and nearly 5m lifetime, which was well above Square's expectations for it. On the other hand, Deus Ex: Mankind Divided seems to be somewhere between 3-4m lifetime based on VGC console data, Steam Spy, and the 2018 Steam Data leak, a pretty decent sized drop from Human Revolution. 

Tomb Raider 2013 sold 11m+ and Rise of the Tomb Raider sold 7m+ as of 2017, while the last official number we got for Shadow of the Tomb Raider was 4.1m shipped in the first 4 months. 

So yeah, first those 2 games underperformed, then Avengers underperformed, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Square did sell the Western Division. Their western division has been plagued with problems ever since they opened it. Sleeping Dogs performed under their expectations, Just Cause 3 performed under their expectations, Hitman performed under their expectations before IO Interative bought the IP off of them and went independent from Square. With so many problems over the years, it would make sense for Square to write the western division off and sell it, though I'm doubtful that Ubisoft could afford it, seems far more likely that MS, Embracer, Google, Amazon, or Tencent would be the ones to try and buy it off of them if they were selling, not Ubisoft.

Hmm, I think Ubisoft could afford it but like, Idk, I don't really see why Ubisoft would be so eager for it, so they wouldn't try as hard and likely get outbid, Tom Clancy's Deus Ex?

Thankfully Square Enix is okay with spinning studios off, when nobody acquired IO they instead let them become independent which is nice and Tbh not very common, when a studio is underperforming it is usually closure so that's cool, maybe they'd do the same for Crystal Dynamics and Eidos - But I'm pretty sure it's less costly to simply just shut the studio down, hence why it isn't common for studios to be spun off independently.

But if someone were to acquire them I think it would likely be one of the subscription companies who are looking for content right now, so yeah, that'd be Microsoft, Google, Amazon or Tencent.

Embracer...Like I said, I'm pretty sure they're either going to start their own subscription service or cash out, Embracer could be the trojan horse into the industry that Google or Amazon needs, I really think they have another motive now, their rate of growth just isn't sustainable Imo.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 20 November 2020