I see many people in here saying ~12m. I wish I had this level of optimism that the next Super Mario Bros. game is just around the corner and will release during 2021.
NSMBU Deluxe is on pace to hit 10m or close to it by the end of 2020, selling ~4m this year alone. In order to finish at ~12m lifetime, it would take something to really cripple its legs real soon, because otherwise the ~12m are in the bag by the end of 2021.
I don't expect Nintendo to make a new Super Mario Bros. game for Switch, because they already let the opportunity of the 35th anniversary pass and before they were more interested in making a sequel to the level editor Super Mario Maker from 2015 than a series that was more in need of a new game. LTD sales progression for NSMBU Deluxe:
End of 2020: 5.85m
End of 2021: ~10m
End of 2022: ~13m
End of 2023: ~15.5m
End of 2024: ~17m
End of 2025: ~18m
End of 2026: ~18.5m
End of life: 19m+
So I picked the 19.0-20.9m option.Last edited by RolStoppable - on 16 November 2020