sundin13 said:
Interesting polling development:
Trafalgar, a notoriously R leaning pollster, released three polls earlier today which raised a couple eyebrows. They had Trump leading by 3 points in Florida, Arizona and Michigan. All three of these were sizable outliers, but what really takes the cake are their demographic breakdowns. They had Trump winning 18-24 year olds by 18 points, and Trump winning 31% of the black vote in Florida and Trump winning 30% of Democrat voters in Michigan (what?).
However, the links to all of these polls are now dead.
Robert Cahaly (head Trafalgar pollster) seems to now be trying to say that these polls were fake, despite the fact that he spent his day defending them. Nate Silver of 538 seems to have looked at them pretty closely and believed them to be real, but who can say at this point...
Weird stuff.
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Yeah, I saw those and was wondering how NC and Michigan had the same results.
He was defending these results, so obviously the suggestion that they weren't his is bullshit. Someone posted something they shouldn't have, and he got caught.
Confirms that these are fake polls. It's a pretty simple strategy. Go against the grain, and when you're on the right end of a shocking result (as they were in Michigan and PA last year) people anoint you as a guru. When you're wrong (as they were in Nevada) nobody pays attention.
