haxxiy said:
Sure. But you could say the same about in-person election day votes and provisional ballots. That doesn't mean almost all of them won't have been counted late in the night already, since the ballot deadline is also November 3rd. Also, inferences that will be made based on exit polls and the numbers from bellwether counties when the press decides to call the outcome etc. Unless you're expecting a 2000-like situation there. |
If Florida yes, but in NC, the deadline isn't actually until the 12th if the ballot is postmarked by the 3rd I believe. I think Arizona and arguably Nevada are the only swing states with a 11/3 deadline besides Florida. And Florida and Arizona seem close enough that they may not be able to call them quickly.
TBH I don't know what to expect. I don't know how much longer it might take, if they may be shortstaffed due to Covid concerns, etc. Or maybe because of all the early voting states can actually be called quicker.
I'm hoping for the best preparing for the worst. Best is Florida and Arizona getting called quickly for Biden. In that case, Biden would only need one of the 4 rust belts states... and since Iowa will likely be called (and maybe Ohio too but they let in late ballots as of now) we can probably tell whether or not there's any chance of Trump making a clean sweep there.
Worst case scenario would be Trump winning Florida, Arizona, and Iowa by like 5. That would leave us with some uncertainty at least till Pennsylvania gets called.
Of course the like, best best scenario would be Texas, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Iowa all getting called on election night, but we have to be at least a little realistic here.
