jason1637 said:
For the house races you need to take in account yhat 2018 had quite a it progressives appealing to the far left Democratic base. In 2020 the biggest Democratic candidate is Biden so I doubt big Bernie bros and other far lefties will vote for Biden. 45% is only like 1% lower than what Trump got in 2016. Nvm the second part. Just took a look a look at some older numbers and 150m is possible. |
It's 1% lower than what Trump got, but that's not really an apples to apples comparison, because we're talking about the generic ballot. The generic ballot has never lined up directly with the President's vote share, case in point 2016 where the party outperformed Trump by 4 points, so you can't treat 45% as what Trump would have gotten if he were running that year.
But, a swing in the generic ballot does tend to predict the incumbent party's candidate will fare worse in the election. So, it is a sign that Trump might lose support this year. And the rest of the signs seem to be pointing that way too.
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Speaking of the Senate, Democrats are now poised to flip the Senate this year, too: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/ Still remember how the Republicans were sure they were safe as they thought most of their states that were up for reelection were too red to be flipped. Well, would you just look at that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections#Predictions While the Republicans will flip Alabama's special election seat as was expected beforehand, the Republicans are loosing states they really didn't expect to loose. Here's a little list of states that are expected to be flipped:
Which would give the democrats 51 seats and thus the majority already even without the VP. Add to this the possibility of both Georgia elections become democratic as both are tossups, the republicans will probably loose everything this election. |
I really haven't been keeping up with the Senate races. I know it's important, but I only have so much mental energy.
If the Democrats win and they follow the "it's constitutional, it's fair" philosophy... They can do some things that would make the republican party as we know it basically unviable. And honestly, those things wouldn't really be that crazy.
