I don't think anyone will be moving to cartridges unless the form factor can't house a disc drive. Reason being, cartridges are more expensive, so publishers would rather not deal with that. And there are no
I do think this is the last generation of physical media for PlayStation and Xbox though, considering the systems are launching with disc-less versions, coupled with (and this is probably why) the ration of digital sales has increased a lot in the past few years. Capcom reported an over 80% digital ratio this year. And are expecting over 90% next year. But this is an odd year that promotes more digital purchases. Though none the less, I think digital is nearing the point where they'll be able to get away with all digital consoles. In the next 7 years they'll probably try it for their next systems.
Ratio of actual game sales, or revenue?
Because companies usually just post digital revenue %s. And considering DLC/micro transactions can only be bought digitally it's not really an accurate reflection of how many people still buy discs.
As part of its annual shareholder meeting, a Capcom representative was asked “through strengthening digital sales, what is your objective for the digital sales ratio?” to which Capcom responded that “our current digital download sales ratio is approximately 80%.”
Sure, but that's not relevant to the OP's claim, since he's pushing physical cartridges as replacement to discs.
Drive and discs aren't the major cost (drive ≈ 2 flash carts), it is physical game retail that is cost* for game pubs.
* and more than costs as such, lost sales due to physical 2nd hard market which pure-digital does away with by design.
Nobody will change game format... to another physical format that doesn't do anything else for them (unlike digital).
Nintendo didn't actually change because they already were using carts in portables, which Switch certainly still is.
Yeah, I replied to OP as well about that, but the other post I replied to seemed to focus on physical vs digital, with "Physical is cheaper" followed by the claim that discs and drives cost next to nothing.
But yeah, I agree with you.