Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

[JWeinCom]

numberwang said:

Mnementh said:

The 538 forecast trends more and more for Biden. Currently it has a 13% chance of a Trump-reelection and 87% for Biden (there is always a thin chance for a stalemate in the electoral college).

So from the standpoints of voters preference this election seems clear. But there are always factors that could influence elections beyond actual votes:

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/10/11/unofficial-ballot-drop-boxes-popping-up-throughout-the-state-worry-elections-officials/

What could go wrong with polling?

That doesn't show anything wrong with the polling... more of a misunderstanding of statistics.

If I asked you to pick a number between one and 10, you have about the same chance of getting the number correct as Trump has at winning. If you in fact do guess the correct number, that doesn't mean I was wrong in saying you had a 90% chance of being wrong.

For the record, fivethirtyeight gave Donald Trump a 1/3 chance of winning. So, it wasn't really that unlikely that the polls could be off enough for him to win, which he did by very narrow margins in a few states that mattered. This time around, it would have to be a much larger error, which is less likely.