Haven't done a polls update in a while, because at this point it's kind of boring. There is no way to read the tea leaves in any way that suggests anything but a decisive Biden victory. Assuming that there is no form of fraud in voting, it would take a polling error unlike anything seen in 70 years to get any other result.
But what the hell. Let's do it anyway.
Double digit leads for Biden have become the norm, not the exception. Biden now leads by 10.6 points nationwide.
The only poll that has a close race is Zogby analytics. Zogby was one of the polls that had Trump with a good chance of winning, but they basically overrated him everywhere. Still if you're looking for a reason for optimism/pessimism as the case may be, there it is.
On state level the best news for Trump is Trafalgar showing a 2% Biden lead in Pennsylvania. I've discussed them before as their claim to fame is predicting Trump wins in Michigan and Penn. Two things to note though. First, they overrated Trump virtually everywhere. Second, if they are as accurate as they were in 2016 for Penn, that's a Biden win.
In terms of other good news for Trump, there's not much. One poll I've not heard of (has a B/C rating from 538) has Biden up only by 2 in Nevada which would show it's still in play. Morning Consult has Trump leading in Ohio. Ohio is a must win for Trump, but realistically, he has to win it by more than 3%. If Ohio shifted by 5 points, Penn, Mich, and Wis, most likely shifted by at least 1. Trump also maintains 2-5% leads in Texas and Georgia.
For Biden, the good news is everything else. In Florida, polls are consistently showing a 3-5 point lead. North Carolina is also showing a steady Biden wins. A win in either states makes Biden almost definitely the winner. Wins in both means Trump has to win in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and every swing state. Which isn't too likely.
Polls show Biden with about a 10% lead in Colorado. This would just about double Clinton's 2016 margin, which would be a good sign for other states that Clinton lost by a close margin.
The last poll of note is one in West Virginia. West VA doesn't get polled much since it's so heavily republican, so the results should be taken with a big grain of salt. But, the result is kind of shocking. It shows a 14% Trump lead. This is compared to a 40% win in 2016. Again, big grain of salt, but polls also show Trump losing ground in states like Missouri, Montana, and South Carolina. Basically, it seems like there is a universal shift away from Trump in all states, red blue or purple.
So that's where it stands. Again, either massive polling error, or Trump loses handily.
