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JWeinCom on 16 September 2020
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Going to post poll updates, because this whole thing stresses me out and this maybe makes me feel less stressed.

Some new results came in and they are mostly good for the Biden campaign.

Quinnipiac is the first decent pollster in a while to poll Maine's second district and found Biden with a pretty solid lead of 9 points. It's not great to rely on one poll, but as this is a one electoral vote district, not a lot of people are polling it. Despite it being such a small prize, there are a lot of scenarios where Trump will need either ME-2 or NE-2 to break an electoral tie, and both to win.

Washington Post (A+ rating) has Biden up by 6 amongst likely voters in Wisconsin and up by a whopping 16 in Minnesota. The results in Minnesota are surprising, and should be taken with a grain of salt despite the quality of the source. But, other highly rated polls have had Biden up by about 10, so while 16 is probably not accurate (there's a margin of error) it seems Minnesota is pretty safe for Biden. Wisconsin is somewhat more vulnerable, but still looks likely for Biden. If that's the case, Trump would probably need wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Speaking of Florida, Monmouth has Biden up by 4. That's a decent foundation, especially as Mikey B is prepared to barrage the state with 100,000,000 dollars in advertising. If Biden wins Florida, then the election is over for all practical purposes.

Last, polls show Trump with a 6 point lead in South Carolina. This is only one poll, albeit by a B+ rated pollster, but it's still got to be a little bit concerning considering this was a state that Trump carried by about 14% in 2016. If that polling is correct, Trump is about as vulnerable in SC as Biden is in Wisconsin. Losing SC would be a blow. Moreover, if South Carolina is so close, that doesn't bode well for Trump in its neighbors, North Carolina and Georgia, both of which were very competitive in 2016 and competitive now. If Trump actually only wins SC by 6% then he'll very likely lose GA and NC, and the election.

In non polling news, Trump is pulling TV ads from certain states (for now at least) including Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. This means one of two things. Either Trump is confident in those states, or he is running out of money.

In the case of Nevada confident would mean confident of a loss. Iowa and Ohio could mean confident of a win. But, the polls don't give much reason for confidence. More likely this is running out of money, and wanting to spend it during the end of the election. But, we're already near the end, and people are already starting to vote via mail in ballots and early voting. Ohio is especially striking as losing Ohio would mean losing the election. Theoretically, Trump could make up for Ohio by winning Pennsylvania or some combination of two other rust belt states, but Trump won Ohio by 9 points, while winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by about one point each. So, it's hard to see a scenario where Trump loses in Ohio and wins the election.