Well we're now past Labor Day, which is generally the point at which people start paying serious attention to elections in this country. So where are we as of this moment? As of today...
-Biden leads Trump by 7.5 percentage points (50.5% to 43%) in the moving average of polls according to Real Clear Politics.
-Biden leads Trump by 7.6 percentage points (50.5% to 42.9%) in the moving average of polls according to FiveThirtyEight.
This compares with a 7.1 and 7.3 percentage advantage for Biden in the same two polling averages respective a couple weeks ago. So, in other words, not much is really changing and, if anything is, it favors Biden. This contest appears to be pretty much set in stone.
Since the conventions, we've seen marginal increases in support for both Biden and Trump, indicating that undecided voters and those previously favoring third party or independent candidates are, unsurprisingly, starting to rally around one or the other of the major party candidates. That pattern will likely continue as we move closer to election day, as it always does. That's all that's really changed of late though. The issue for Trump continues to be the same: he keeps wanting to talk about urban crime and playing to white identity politics, but the public is way more concerned about the coronavirus pandemic, which has been the focus of Joe Biden's campaign.
Trump's only real hope at this point is the debates coming up starting at the end of this month. He badly needs for those to shift the narrative of this election away from himself somehow.
