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That's definitely more likely than the other thread about Switch taking the sell-through record for the calendar year (~29.6m), because this prediction drops a quarter of lower production in favor of a quarter with higher production levels, and a sell-in prediction has the benefit of overstuffed channels being an option whereas sell-through always requires actual demand.

For the calendar year sell-through prediction I've been thinking 25-28m as the low and high ends, but for the fiscal year sell-in 25-30m constitutes a realistic range, making your prediction more probable to come true. One big question mark are Nintendo's production plans for the individual SKUs, because they keep being too low for the more desired hybrid model. Retailers won't be ordering even more Lites when they are already piling up because too many consumers are waiting for the hybrid.

The other big question mark is of course the release schedule for the next seven months, because having a good first party holiday title and a solid final fiscal quarter are bound to keep the hardware sales momentum high. Although I am less concerned about this than Nintendo's production capacities and the split between hybrid and Lite numbers.

In any case, this is a bold prediction and a good one at that. Switch will eat its current gen competition (PS5 and XSX/S) for breakfast.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments