I agree $500 would be an artificial cap. It's a big ask after seeing previous launches like the above post said. Dunno if they'd gamble by launching a premium model over $500. Will the discless model cost less? Can't imagine it's an expensive part, or would it somehow give the impression of being inferior (which to me it is, I like my media). Competition wise we have to see who fires first. I mean $50 difference isn't a big deal and going up to $100 less would be a hefty dent in profit. I'd guess they launch about the same price and try to buy customers through exclusives. Then you wonder if economic issues affect their asking price. With so many out of work we could have a slow start to the gen.
So if I were going to vote I'd say both at $400 just to leave room for a premium model or bundle at a later time.