Chicho said:
RolStoppable said:

It's certain that this year's baseline will continue to be higher than last year's, so the next five weeks are bound to be easy wins for 2020. The situation in 2019 was that both the updated hybrid SKU and the Lite were known, so weekly sales leading up to them were rather low. Launch weeks for the SKUs were week 35 and 38, respectively.

Week 35 at 90 should be close maybe higher for 2020 week 38 at 239 will be the hard one. Its crazy that switch will almost certainly cross 3M in japan next week. Last year it took until week 46 to cross 3M, that's 16 week difference. Was it you hat asked is it possible for switch to sell over 5M in japan this year? Because now i don't just think is possible. I think is highly likely. 

That sounds like a tbone51 thread.

Ever since the delay of Animal Crossing into the year 2020, I was sure that 2019 wouldn't be Switch's peak year. What's special about Animal Crossing is that it has a much bigger pull for females than any other Nintendo game, so it comes with large hardware selling potential. I've posted the year over year comparison every week this year and since the beginning the biggest point of interest was whether or not 2020 can beat 2019 and what kind of sales progression it will take. In short: 2020 had to build a sizeable lead (a few hundred thousand) until September to be prepared for the Lite launch of 2019.

2020 was on track for that through the first 11 weeks, but then Animal Crossing (and subsequent corona lockdowns) led to such a massive hardware boost that it became a question of by how much will 2020 beat 2019. 2019 managed 4.5m, 2020 will be 5.0m minimum. Right now 5.5m looks like the floor and that's without knowing Nintendo's first party lineup for the remaining five months. If it's at least decent, then 6.0m is in the cards.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club