Shaunodon said:
Hiku said:

I tend to avoid predicting sales trends several years into the future, as that results in more guesswork with less available knowledge of factors like software releases.

Though on that note I feel Nintendo consoles can be less predictable since Playstations are more or less guaranteed to get all third party console games that don't have an exclusivity deal.

I don't know how that affects Switch when it's not nearly that reliant on third party software. And despite certain people repeating the fallacy of, 'Nintendo mentioned a succesor so it must be coming soon!', the only time they talk about a future system is when discussing the extra longevity they plan to give Switch. So we know all their development will still be focused on this one system for a considerable amount of time yet.

If you know that a system will get essentially all third party console games (on top of the first party titles), that is a level of assurance that's not insignificant when predicting a portion of sales for a system, if there's a prescience.
Because third party titles make up for the vast majority of the library, there's less room for uncertainty due to two or three titles in any given year.

If Sony launch a PS4 that's fairly identical to PS3, it can be easier to foresee it inheriting a certain degree of PS3's success. Because there's a prescience with that target audience, with those games, at certain price points, with a particular hardware.

Nintendo like to change their consoles pretty drastically. Wii that missed out on most major third party releases still managed to reach 100m+. While WiiU with arguably one of the best first party lineups reached 15m.

If Nintendo release a Switch 2 that's fairly identical to Switch 1, then there's a prescience for that kind of system, library and audience. And it would be easier to predict some of Switch 2's long term success.

Shaunodon said:

Really isn't that difficult at all to predict potential software output between now and likely late 2024, when you just consider all the teams Nintendo have under their umbrella, along with studios they're closely associated with.

Right. But there are fewer of them to anticipate. And any deviation has a bigger potential impact.
When there's no Direct for a while, or it didn't live up to expectations, discussion over the release schedule tends to ensue.
If The Last of Us 2 gets delayed, fans get disappointed, but that's the extent of it. Because it's just one first party game vs the many more Final Fantasy VII's, Resident Evil 3's or what have you coming out in that window.

And how many more people will these games bring in during a systems later years?
That's safer to predict the more similarities there are to the previous generation.
PS4 was ahead of PS2 launch aligned for quite a while, but due to relevant factors that differed the systems situation, I would never have taken that as a sure sign that it'll end up anywhere near 155m. But some people still think that's going to happen.

Last edited by Hiku - on 17 July 2020