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Salnax said:

(...)

Even acknowledging that the Switch's numbers will only rise, there are still some things to note.

  • The Switch and DS dominate in terms of total software sales, whereas the GBA underperforms. Even acknowledging that some major Game Boy games are not included, this is still indicative of the Switch's success.
  • Notable winners on Switch include 3D Mario, Mario Kart, and Legend of Zelda.
  • 2D Mario is the biggest letdown on the Switch. Sure it's a port of a Wii U game, but so is Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and that's outsold Mario Kart DS!
  • Pokemon Sword/Shield is going to be the best-selling entry in the series since the Game Boy Color days, being only 300k sales behind Diamond/Pearl on the DS. Assuming the game has similar legs as X/Y on 3DS, we can expect it to sell up to 10 million more copies. That would still be behind Gold/Silver, but still very high.
  • Considering how stable Animal Crossing's sales are, it's already outselling previous entries is remarkable.
  • 3D Zelda outsold 2D Zelda on both the 3DS and now especially the Switch.
  • Kirby is no surprise, being largely constant in sales since 2000 or so.
  • DKC: Tropical Freeze on Switch sold decently enough, but is notably around the same sales as Returns 3D.
  • Three Houses is roughly on par with Fire Emblem Fates in terms of sales, despite that game having mechanics that likely inflated sales
  • If we get another 2D Metroid, expect it to sell poorly.

Any thoughts?

1. This is an apples vs. oranges comparison because Switch isn't a handheld, but a home console that happens to be portable. As such, the average console owner will buy notably more games and that's visible in the tie ratio where Switch has already exceeded the lifetime tie ratios of all Nintendo handhelds. Of course Switch is a success, there are no two ways about it. We have yet to reach the halfway point of Switch's lifecycle, yet its first party software numbers are already skyhigh.

2. Mario Kart 8 (Deluxe) has the reputation of being the best game in the series, a reputation that NSMB U (Deluxe) does not share. Software quality matters, hence why Breath of the Wild has outperformed Skyward Sword so easily. Switch games aren't going to set new franchise-highs by default.

3. Fire Emblem Fates has each of its paths counted towards the grand total, so its sales are definitely inflated because Fire Emblem fans could get the content of two games for $60 or three games for $80, so an individual Fire Emblem fan contributed up to three copies to the Fates total.

4. 2D Metroid will sell poorly if Sakamoto is allowed to continue to molest the IP. Again, software quality matters. Samus Returns on the 3DS was a 2D game that couldn't be played with the d-pad, to name just one of the things where it went wrong.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments