JRPGfan said:

And your still probably looking at the Tip of the Ice berg, thinking its the whole of it.

Its still accelerateing and growing.
Right now: 135,000 confirmed cases and ~2400 deaths.
3-4 months from now :  ~a few million confirmed cases + 100,000-200,000 deaths (from today, Dr. Fauci estimates).


"people who are losing their jobs far outpaces the number of people who get confirmed to be infected and on top of that, the number of people who die is even smaller."

And? even if 100 people lose their jobs, for every 1 death, thats more than acceptable.

Give it a month or two, and most of those people will find new jobs.
Give it a month or two, most of those dead, wont be comeing back.


"What needs to be mentioned is that unemployment has risen dramatically despite huge measures by governments. In both Austria and Germany people's jobs are saved by scaling down their work hours to 10% which the employer pays while the state tosses in another ~70% of the regular wage, so people work only 10% of their usual time, but still receive ~80% of their wage. But many businesses had to close shop altogether, so not even such a generous measure could prevent the loss of jobs. Other countries face the same issues."

^ yes, jobs will be lost.  Its a good way to try and off-set the worst of it. In denmark we did something simular, so job losses arnt too insane.

The projections of some of the so-called experts are silly. Recently I've seen one for the UK where a projection of deaths was scaled down from 500k to 20k. The hunger for news means that people who shouldn't get a word in get news time and that can foster fear, paranoia, panic and hysteria.

Meanwhile, the economy is getting hit hard on a level that is approaching the financial crisis of the late 2000s. Helping the economy is not going to be an instant death sentence for people infected with corona. The measures are going to get adjusted soon because governments will be looking to find a balance between saving lives and keeping countries running.


^ this is where your logic falls apart.


How many people did the financial crisis kill?  How many survived, but had ruined lunges + kidneys + livers?
Liveing on dialysis doesnt sound fun, or needing to carry around a oxygen tank, because someone was worried about the economical impact of trying to stop spread of a virus. Theres a cost, to just carrying on as if nothing is wrong (in terms of lives (more will die), and interms of liveing (people will survive but have issues because of it).

Ultimately I think its about saveing lives.
Even if liveing standards (economically) might have to drop a slight bit for a periode of time.

I think most are more than willing to do that.

I am not putting any stock in what Dr. Fauci says because the truth is that even experts make a lot of guesses. And of course the number of confirmed cases is growing when the number of tests is growing as well with each passing day.

The lost job to death ratio is well above 1,000:1, so your "even if 100 people lose their jobs for every 1 death" shows that you aren't aware of the numbers. You thought you are highballing, hence the "even if", but your statement was actually significant downplay of the magnitude. And no, people won't get their jobs back in a month or two when your side of the argument is that the lockdown shouldn't be reduced after Easter. That's the main point of contention here, after all. If you propose that the same strict measures have to continue because we are nowhere near the point to open things back up again, then the people who have lost their jobs won't have an opportunity to get rehired because businesses will continue to be closed.

"It's about saving lives" is something that the majority goes along with because it sounds morally good. I've touched on this in my prediction post yesterday. But such solidarity has limits and when living standards drop in both monetary value as well as social life, then people will begin to think more about themselves than anyone else. There are people who already had a hard time going through two weeks of measures and the next two weeks will feel even longer and more depressing. An outlook of an extension is bound to make them change their mind on solidarity, and the longer the measures continue, the louder the cries for a different approach will be.

I've likened it to the refugee crisis in 2015 when most of the EU citizens embraced solidarity, but eventually a U-turn was performed by the EU and the borders got shut as much as possible. EU citizens at large were fine with people drowning in the mediterranian sea as long as that meant no more big waves of refugees coming to Europe. So it should be expected that rather soon the population at large will be fine with an approach of isolation for corona risk groups while the vast majority of people can start to return to normal. Governments will heed those calls and act accordingly.



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