I got no clue. There are too many variables. Can people buy a Switch to play it? Will stores even be open for the game to be available? If so, then in which countries? What percentage of lost physical sales will show up as digital sales? I've got no clue.
Long term, I'm sure the game will be the best selling Animal Crossing yet. Short term? I really don't know.
Both short and long term for sure.
Userbase is big. Game reviewed exceptional. Current situation is benefitting playing such a game.
New Leaf had a pretty slow start and huge legs.
In Japan it sold 700k first week. New Horizons will probably triple that.
The western scene previously was not THAT big but since New Leaf and the Mobile game the fanbase has grown and cultivated and was in dire need of a new mainline game.
Performance on amazon worldwide is also amazing.
Expect big things from this game when it comes to sales. Its digital share will also be a lot bigger than previous Nintendo games.