DarthJarvis said:
I really doubt itd be any closer. Your whole argument falls apart when we consider Disney, a multi multi multi billion dollar a year company, has had the release date scheduled for months before releasing it. This said company, being films is one of the greatest revenues for them, would be fully aware that the calendar would negatively impact sales. This company would also be aware that any other company would want to avoid facing the juggernaut of SW in the box office directly. Disney would be able to announce what date they would want and keep it and force the other companies with much smaller movies to release that week later.

Thank you for actually taking the time to address me without being insulting and dismissive like the OP has continually made a habit of doing over the past two years.

Is it possible that TROS may have ended up in the $510-520M lifetime range even if it had released a week earlier? Certainly. Do I think it would have? Not really. I still think it could have pulled at least 5-10% more. Had it released on the 13th, its first week gross would have been lower without the Christmas boost. Had its opening weekend gross as a percent of its Week 1 gross been the same as Rogue One's, that would have resulted in a Week 1 gross of $254M instead of $289.8M. Had that percentage been like TLJ's, it would have grossed about $239.2M.

Meanwhile, its Week 2 would have been better since that would be Christmas week. This past Christmas Day was on a Wednesday instead of a Sunday like in 2016 or a Monday like in 2017, to the boost likely wouldn't have been quite as big, but then again it still wouldn't have had the weekend impacted by a Christmas Eve at all, either. So, there still would have been a high likelihood of continuing to do better than Rogue One at minimum. It absolute terms, its second weekend was better than Rogue One's by a comfortable margin, and even in terms of a percent drop it only dropped marginally more than Rogue One (note that Rogue One had Christmas Eve on Saturday, but that was almost certainly made up for by Christmas Day being Sunday); it was had a much softer drop for the Friday+Saturday portion of Weekend 2 than TLJ, though in absolute terms it was still slightly less, grossing $51.1M vs. $53.9M for TLJ (I omitted Sunday because that day of Weekend 2 was Christmas Eve for TLJ, which would be unfair to it instead of to TROS). I think it would have again ended up somewhere between Rogue One and TLJ.

After two weeks I think it could have had a cumulative gross of at minimum around $390M, and perhaps as high as $420M (its actual gross after two weeks was $417M). This would still have resulted in a smaller LTD total than TLJ, but more than Rogue One.

But then you get to Week 3. That's what really hurt TROS. In Week 3, TLJ dropped 49.9% and Rogue One only 47.9%. TROS meanwhile dropped 66.8%? Why? Well, the OP would like to rationalize it away purely as a result of audience reaction, but the actual data, which I've done my due diligence to provide, shows the real cause in the disparity in the Week 3 drop: New Year's. The post-NYD drop hits every film, some harder than others. Aside from a handful of exceptions, the drop a December release experiences in its first full post-New Year's week is well in excess of 50%. And TROS's first full post-New Year's week was Week 3, instead of Week 4 like the other recent SW films.

Had TROS's Week 3 ran from Dec. 27 - Jan. 2 instead of Jan. 3 - 9, the drop would have been far less. In fact, it might have ended up being less than what Rogue One and TLJ had in their Week 3, as TROS would have had only one day that week that was after New Year's Day. If we assume a 40% drop, then TROS could have potentially grossed $90M or more in Week 3, better than either Rogue One or TLJ's third week. After three weeks, I think TROS could have ended up at around $480-510M, possibly slightly higher. The higher end of that range would be 5.5% less than TLJ, and even the lower end would still be several percentage points higher than TROS's actual gross after three weeks.

After Week 3, things get murkier. Had TROS grossed $90M in Week 3, then assuming a drop of 65% it would have about tied TLJ's Week 4. This is entirely plausible, and it's also plausible that it may have continued to narrow (but maybe not entirely close) the gap between itself and TLJ. I base this on the observation that, in the days and weeks that were free and clear from comparisons to New Year's (those being Weeks 5, 6, & 7), TROS has been dropping at an overall slower rate than TLJ did, even managing to beat TLJ on a couple of days (Week 7 as a whole saw a larger drop for TROS, but that was because of the Super Bowl, which wasn't until the Sunday of Week 8 for TLJ; for every other day of Week 7, TROS had smaller WoW drops). Now, there's no guarantee that would have remained the case had TROS released a week earlier, but if TROS really was turning off audiences and causing a rapid bleedout, we ought to have at least expected repeated week-over-week drops as large or larger than what TLJ did. We've seen the opposite, which I think at least implies that, at least when it comes to repeat and long-term viewing, TROS didn't turn as many people off as TLJ did. Again, even just decelerating the negative is a positive.

Assuming TROS grossed around $70M for all weeks after Week 3, then with my other estimates that puts my hypothetical "TROS released on Dec. 13" gross at $550-580M. Right now, TROS is on track to do $515-517M lifetime, while Rogue One ended at $544.6M and TLJ ended at $620M. So, had TROS released a week earlier, it ought to have at minimum beaten Rogue One, and perhaps came maybe 5-7% short of TLJ, and at least a good bit over 5% more than its actual likely lifetime gross, maybe even over 10% better.

Granted, this is all pure speculation, and it's impossible to prove since we can't create and observe an alternate universe where the only difference is that TROS released a week earlier. But at least it's based on something, some actual real-life data that we can make educated guesses with. That's better that what most others have offered on this topic... and on the topic of TLJ's gross from the thread two years ago, for that matter. At least I haven't done what a certain someone else has repeatedly done and just make shit up off the top of my head based on absolutely nothing, or flat out reject clearly established evidence, or point at some red herring and call it a day. I've asked for better. I've asked for arguments based on evidence. But in the past two years I've gotten nothing but a continued litany of bad-faith arguments. Hell, I've asked for a source on a particular talking point that gets trotted out repeatedly by the claimant (one that Google seems to be useless in finding), and I've gotten nothing but crickets and tumbleweeds in response. How can I take that person seriously in the face of all that? At least I try to base my arguments on facts, cite my sources, etc.

With all that being said, what can be said about TROS is that it was nigh-impossible for it to have matched or beaten TLJ with the release date it got. Assuming it had the same week-over-week drops, it would have had to have absolutely outclassed TLJ in its first week in order to match it lifetime. I'm talking at least $350M, which is a bit over 20% better than TLJ's first week, and larger than any other movie's first week besides Endgame and The Force Awakens. Either that, or it would have had to have implausibly small drops each week. Forget about $700M. I honestly wished I had studied the data harder before I guessed that prior to release. TROS would likely have needed well over $390M in Week 1 to pull that off.

With their release dates being what they were, there was absolutely no way in hell TROS could have matched or out-grossed TLJ under just about any plausible scenario. That is a fact.

Oh, and for what it's worth, in adjusted terms TROS will still end up at #13 domestically for all movies released in the 2010s, as well as #24 for the 21st century so far, and #46 out all films released since 1975 (the generally accepted beginning of the "Blockbuster Era" of film). Only 51 films released in the past 45 years have managed to pass an adjusted gross of $500M (using the 2019 average ticket price of $9.16 as our adjuster), and The Rise of Skywalker is one of them. That's pretty damn good, all things considered.