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AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

Quite a few optimistic predictions you have there. MK8D, SSBU, SMO, BotW and Let's Go are all older games where you overestimate their legs. Luigi's Mansion 3 is at least a couple of millions too high and Ring Fit Adventure is the worst offender because it should have 2.0-2.5m at most. On the other hand, Sword/Shield seems a bit too low while Super Mario Party is definitely too low. SMP did 1.2m in the first half of this fiscal year, so 0.6m per quarter; its holiday quarter isn't going to be worse than that.

Splatoon 2, NSMBU and SMM2 look okay, although I'd expect NSMBU to do better than SMM2.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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