There are just too many factors to tell, really.. Will Japan still be gung-ho about handhelds in 4 years? Will Nintendo release more upgraded/revamped Switch models? What's the library look like. And the big one - when will Nintendo release Switch 2?
Now I anticipate this thing selling at a similar number/trajectory to the DS - though probably a bit less ultimately. People compare it to the Wii but really the device is something of a hybrid of the two, and maybe a bit more similar to the DS b/c it has a touch screen and handheld functionality is really its biggest draw. I think the sales will similarly be somewhere in the middle, perhaps in the 120-130 range. It'll almost certainly have longer legs than the Wii, which completely flatlined after an explosive first 3 years or so.
PS4 will probably end up with a similar number of close to 120. So it's tough to say whether it'll even cross the PS4 in the first place. I think there's a good chance, IF Nintendo churns out a couple new models in the next 4 or so years and keeps supporting it with a strong library. Assuming that happens? I can see Switch inch past the PS4 (at least slightly) by the end of Christmas 2024.
"We hold these truths to be self-evident - all men and women created by the, go-you know.. you know the thing!" - Joe Biden
