When will the switch outsell the ps4?

[Bofferbrauer2]

yo33331 said:

PS4 is doing 140M lifetime like it or not. And Switch will have very very difficult time reaching it. It will probably do another 20M this year and the next at best. After this, decline, and it will maybe finish at 110-120M at best. And yes, the buyers who would buy switch for 199$ are buying it now. So no price cut to 199$ on the normal switch won't push the sales any further. The lite at 149$ after year or two can, but I already put it in the accounting with the numbers that I wrote.

Me personally I think PS5 and XB1 will affect switch sales little or more. Switch is console with PS3/360 power, and with PS5 it will be 2 generations behind. Pretty much everyone different from casual gamer would think twice about getting console with hardware that was high end in 2005.. This also means that 3rd party support may be smaller compare to now. Because one thing is PS4 port to PS3 hardware, and way other thing is PS5 game to PS3 hardware. There will be 3rd party games just like not that much as they were until now.

140M?

How? Sales are already breaking away fast, and even a pricecut or two or three won't reverse the sales trend anymore.

RolStoppable said:

yo33331 said:

I think Sony will do 2 major price cuts on it until the end of it's life. That's why I bet on at least 140M. First to 199$ possibly this year and then to 99$ in 2022 or 2023. 12-14M this year with the price cut, 2021 - 10M, 2022 - 6 to 8M (depends if this is the 99$ cut year) and 2023 and 2024 some 4-5M combined

A $99 PS4 sounds very profitable for Sony.

I know you were sarcastic, but I feel the need to explain to yo33331 what you meant by that in detail.

Not even the PS2 was priced that low ($129 was it's lowest outside of promotions), and the PS3 even bottomed out at $199, and that's all without taking inflation into account. I do expect Sony to drop the price one last time during summer to $249 and that's it, from there the PS5 will take over.

Also, expecting Sony to drop the price so hard when they want to sell it's successor would be foolish at best. It would steal tons of sales from the PS5 at the time the console needs the sales the most to build momentum. That's the last thing Sony would want to happen, as that would steal all momentum to the console. Without momentum early on, sales go the way of the Wii U: Nintendo brought tons of truly great games to the system, but without any momentum, they couldn't build on those great games and sales stayed low.

yo33331 said:

Dulfite said:

Wait, you think a price cut won't push Switch but a price cut will push PS4? 

It will, however the push of 199$ has already been done with the lite. It can do a push with 99$. And even then I've already put it in the numbers I gave.

The lite is a Switch with very strong limitations. There's a reason why the non-lite model outsells the lite 2-1 despite the latter being $100 cheaper. The lite is really only for those who need a purebreed handheld and can't use the TV connectivity, the joycons and it's built-in functions, and can live with worse battery life. Many who like the Switch are not even considering buying a lite due to all those restrictions.

Mark my words, the real push to $199 has not happened yet. And probably is still a ways off to be honest. Nintendo will probably first come with a pack-in title and/or another small revision (I'm expecting a version with larger internal storage instead of a pricecut, for instance) before reducing permanently the price of the base model. And even just a drop to $249 for the base model would give the Switch a vast push in sales, let alone a drop to $199.