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Despite an opening weekend that wasn't exactly record-breaking, TROS is definitely making up for that as it has been steadily closing the gap with TLJ. While I never collected any adjusted daily figures from BOM before they changed their site, current ticket prices are very close to what they were when TLJ was in theaters, so the difference for adjusted vs. non-adjusted should be minimal. Here's the non-adjusted grosses of TROS, TLJ, and, just for the hell of it, Rogue One:

Interesting bits of information here. TROS's first Monday-Thursday period was significantly better than TLJ's. Tuesday gross had a statistical tie with TLJ's first Tuesday, despite this Tuesday being Christmas Eve. Overall, despite its opening weekend falling 19.4% short of TLJ's, its first full week was only 2.3% short of TLJ's, another near-tie. Granted, a non-trivial piece of that was from Christmas Day, where TROS put up the second-biggest Christmas Day gross to date. Friday's gross for TROS was not much better than TLJ's second Friday, but this weekend should be better than TLJ's second weekend overall, seeing as TLJ didn't have to face down Christmas Eve until Sunday of its second weekend. I think after Sunday TROS will have the lead over TLJ. Of course, TLJ had its Christmas Day in Week 2, and between that and an overall extremely rare instance of a film's second Monday-Thursday period actually outperforming the first one, that presents a challenge for TROS for it own second Monday-Thursday period. Overall, TLJ dropped 43.3% in its second week. If TROS can manage even only a 40% WoW drop, that would put its LTD gross at about $463.7M, still maintaining a near-tie with TLJ. If the WoW drop for Week 2 is only 35%, that'll put it at over $478M, nearly 3% ahead of where TLJ was at after its first two weeks.

I will continue the above chart out to the end of Week 3, and I'll try to update it each Monday and Friday until then. By that point, the numbers will be low enough to where day-to-day differences become far less pronounced.

Now, I did actually collect adjusted weekly grosses for a number of major films released this century (mostly from the past 10 years), and here's how TROS's first week stacks up against a bunch of other major blockbusters, with a look ahead at what it faces over the coming weeks:

It will be a long time before anything ever passes The Force Awakens. We may never again see a film with legs like Avatar. And it's hard to see anything beating Endgame's debut anytime soon. And it would be unreasonable to expect anything to do what those films did. But compared to most other major blockbusters from the past 12 years, The Rise of Skywalker is off to a solid start. So far, so good.

If TROS's first week gross as a percent of lifetime gross is closer to the likes of TFA, Rogue One, or Avengers 2012, it could go as high as $670M or more. But if that percentage is closer to TLJ's, that would end up being a near tie. Overall, I think a good median projection for TROS's lifetime gross would be $630-640M, with a 75% chance of exceeding TLJ's lifetime gross by at least $10M, a 20% chance of being within $10M of TLJ, a 5% chance of grossing between $10-20M less than TLJ, and a 5% chance of grossing less than that. However, it's still very early, and box office curves are highly unpredictable. There is always a significant margin of error associated with these things. Still, I think TROS stands a good chance of gaining and maintaining a decent and slowly-increasing lead over TLJ. And even if it only ends up about tying TLJ or falling slightly behind it, that's still a damn good performance, more than sufficient to ensure it's in the Top 10 for the decade and Top 30 for all films from the "Blockbuster Era" (1975-present).


In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").