New HH instead of Switch? Switch Lite hits the $205 or less sweet spot of pricing, that the Nintendo Handheld market has always thrived on. Track sales of Switch Lite over the next few years, account for the fact that regular Switch exists, and you're essentially tracking the HH market today. If Switch Lite does less than 50 million, then we know the market did indeed shrink due to Smartphone games. If Switch Lite does 50 million or more, then clearly, had Nintendo launched just Switch Lite in 2017 and no dock it would have sold 100+ million.
So now besides being a hybrid Switch is a console when 300 and HH when 200?
Wouldn't it need to reach then 100M of Wii + 150M of DS?
No. Because there is a huge amount of overlap from Wii and DS owners.