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They'll take a more conservative approach after the ambitious goal (20m, an increase of 33%) wasn't reached in the current fiscal year. With Animal Crossing, Pokémon and Luigi's Mansion 3 they have a lineup of big sellers that matches up closely with SSBU, Pokémon and Super Mario Party, and a price reduction/revision should assure an increase. It's just that this time around they'll go with low end instead of high end expectation based on what they have in the works for the fiscal year.

If things go well, they exceed the forecast; if the turnout is meh, they meet the forecast.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments