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SuperNova said:
Machina said:

Yes the changes made to the extrapolations for European countries we don't directly track will have impacted all Switch software and it looks like they've now all shown up on the main site :)

That's why you guys are seeing LTD increases that are out of line with the weekly increase.

 

It's been clear to me for a while that all major Switch software (other than Zelda, which I've been happy with) was being undertracked, I just needed some indicator as to which specific country(ies) were the ones that needed increasing and by how much. The Super Mario Odyssey launch allowed me to recommend an extrapolation change for 'other Europe' to Brett when those figures came in (he'd previously been resistant to the idea but this finally convinced him).

I suspect there's an undertrack in other markets we don't directly track as well, but that's just a hunch - nothing I can act on unless some reliable data is published elsewhere that can support either the idea that those markets have greater market share for Switch than we assumed or, for example, Nintendo revealing worldwide digital attach rates for certain titles, which would give is a great idea of how close our estimates are to the actual retail sell-through.

So for a lot of Switch software you're basically waiting for official sold through numbers as a reference point to adjust tracking?

I initially came here to see if you were planning on adjusting any Switch numbers since Splatoon 2 seems very undertracked, but (after reading OP and) seeing the mammoth project you have on hand here I can only give cudos to you.

Thanks for your hard work!

The problem is that doesn't help me identify which specific countries/regions are undertracked, so while we can be pretty sure xxxxx game is undertracked overall, the question I then need to ask in order to make an adjustment is in which countries or regions and by how much? I can't just add phantom numbers to the overall to make up the numbers, I need some solid evidence of where I should be increasing the figures, and that will then filter into the overall figure.

Taking the specific example of Splatoon 2 however, I haven't gotten to it in my list of titles to adjust in the US yet, so there may be an increase pending there. In terms of Japan we're slightly over compared to MC and Famitsu but within the margin of error; the UK and Germany is spot on; and France is maybe a touch under, though I'll obviously need to wait until all of our figures are up for 2017 before I can check against the recently revealed figures there. The rest of Europe is also slightly under and will be adjusted up if/when I make changes in France.

That covers the major markets but as you can see it won't really amount to a huge increase. Unfortunately we don't do any tracking in the RoW, and data is hard to find for it, so either the game has a surprisingly high digital attach rate or Switch is doing better than expect in the RoW, in which case the solution is an adjustment to our extrapolation for it, but like I said in the previous post I need some evidence for that before I'd be able to make a successful case for changing the calculations to Brett.

 

@Poweranimals - Keep in mind the Nintendo figures include digital. But yes, some of them are undertracked (and iirc from when I last checked, one or two are also overtracked). They'll be adjusted as and when I get to them, while I'm going through each region making changes.