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azrm2k said:

@Ail 

Your mistake is thinking it has to outsell them every week to make any progress towards 50%. PS3/360 combined can outsell Wii every week for the rest of the year and the Wii can still gain marketshare.

If PS3/360 account for 51% of consoles sold from now on then the Wii won't be outselling them combined. However with it selling 49% of consoles every week it's LTD marketshare will continue to rise till it hits 49% at which point it will level out. Only at that point is it necessary for the Wii to outsell them combined to get over 50%.

Let me put this into simpler numbers:

Wii has sold 26 units so far.
360 has sold 19 units so far.
PS3 has sold 13 units so far.

Wii has 44.8% of the marketshare with those numbers. If for the next 40 weeks Wii sells 9 units every week and PS360 combined sell 10 units we end up with:

Wii with 386 units
PS360 with 432 units

At that point Wii has gone up to 47.2% marketshare. So even with the Wii being outsold by PS360 combined sales for 40 weeks, merely staying close enough gives it a major boost.


I was basing my maths on 50% not lower( which was the bit talk on the forums last week).

Fact is the longer the Wii stays bellow 50% ( even if it raises from 45 to 47%) the less likely it is to pass 360+PS3 in marketshare as the more console have been sold the harder it will become...( because despite going from 45 to 47% the total gap to 50% still increased)



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !