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theRepublic said:
noname2200 said:
Wow, you've thought pretty hard about the Pujols situation, huh? I'd ask for his BABIP, but it's not likely bad luck is in play three years running.

Actually, when I looked at the stats for my last post, I didn't think it would turn out nearly as bad as it did.  I knew he had a down year, but I didn't know it was that bad.  I did not expect to see so many career worsts.

Anyway...

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B&page=7&type=full

BABIP is actually favorable for Pujols.  Above average in 2008, average in 2009 and 2010, and then below average in 2011.  It helps explain part of the drop.  He should have a better year as long as...

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B&page=9&type=full

...he stops hitting so many ground balls.  If you look at the detail graphs in 2011, you can see his BABIP improves as his ground ball rate drops.


Still he is an infielder who does not have to much strain on his body from what I have seen. If he can stay healthy, I see no reason why he cannot do well. There certainly will be some drop off as he ages. Now he is on a American League team. Designated hitter is always a possibility.

 

I think Ground balls are a good start. You never want to have balls too much in the air. Getting out of the high fly ball routine is a pain for players.

Was just looking at Ichiro's season last year. Hope he can pick it up. Although upper 100's in hits is still a great season! I was reminded of him by you guys talking about ground balls, and how he loves to hit a ground ball.



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