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Forums - Politics Discussion - Is Bidens campaign dead? (EDIT: Well, this was turned around completely.)

 

Is Biden's campaign no longer viable?

Yes, his campaign is dead! 31 46.27%
 
His campaign is badly hur... 15 22.39%
 
He will take a small hit,... 5 7.46%
 
No, this result will not hurt his campaign. 7 10.45%
 
Donald Trump will win the democratic primary! 9 13.43%
 
Total:67
Torillian on 09 February 2020
DarthJarvis said:
Torillian said:

If you're going based on delegates than the two factions are dead even with 20 between Warren and Sanders and 20 between Pete, Biden, and Klobuchar. So where are you getting the idea that more people would like to vote for the moderates than the progressives?

Bernie notoriously over performs in caucuses. After NH and Vermont he'll be finishing 3rd pretty substantially 

We'll just have to wait and see, I personally think he's got a decent shot at this point: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/



...

DarthJarvis on 10 February 2020
the-pi-guy said:
Torillian said:

We'll just have to wait and see, I personally think he's got a decent shot at this point: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

It's still stunning how quickly the model changed.  

In like a week, Bernie pretty much doubled his chances.  

DarthJarvis said:

Bernie notoriously over performs in caucuses. After NH and Vermont he'll be finishing 3rd pretty substantially 

On the other hand that was how he performed against Hillary, doesn't necessarily mean it'll hold up.

Bernie = Ron Paul.



Mnementh on 10 February 2020
DarthJarvis said:
Hiku said:

It's too soon to declare that. He could bounce back. But that he is the most "electable" definitely looks like a questionable claim now.
Especially if recent polling in New Hampshire holds.

NH is a Bernie strong hold so that's not surprising. After that then the next 2 weeks you have SC and NV where Bernie doesnt do so well and can easily be close to 3rd in delegates after

Nevada is actually favored for Sanders. That leaves SC, where he also looks stronger than in the past.



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Mnementh on 10 February 2020
axumblade said:
DarthJarvis said:

NH is a Bernie strong hold so that's not surprising. After that then the next 2 weeks you have SC and NV where Bernie doesnt do so well and can easily be close to 3rd in delegates after

I would say that 3rd place is unlikely for Bernie afterward. 2nd is definitely possible though. NH is an obvious win for him. Currently Nevada is neck and neck with Biden and Bernie. South Carolina is definitely going to Biden but there is a weird situation where Republicans are supposedly trying to boost Bernie's numbers in the polls (since we have open primaries and the Republicans opted out of having a primary this year...They are doing this because they don't see Bernie as a threat going up against Trump.) 

Well, they should listen to Tucker Carlson, who said that they shouldn't be so sure that Trump wins against Bernie. Also, didn't the Clinton camp boost Trump in 2016, because they thought he would be the easiest Republican to go against?



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Mnementh on 10 February 2020
the-pi-guy said:
Torillian said:

We'll just have to wait and see, I personally think he's got a decent shot at this point: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

It's still stunning how quickly the model changed.  

In like a week, Bernie pretty much doubled his chances.  

Before Iowa the model had quite a lot of unsures baked in. Look at the range, they write something like: in 80% of simulation he has between x% and y% of the vote. That range was ridiculous broad before Iowa and now certainly got more concrete. The model had a big Iowa bump calculated in, so the winner of Iowa (which was close) was shaping the whole race. That is why the model flipped so fast.



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StuOhQ on 10 February 2020

If Pete gets another State, yes. Bernie will collect enough left-leaning States that Biden cannot afford to have another moderate siphon off delegates...



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Bofferbrauer2 on 10 February 2020
StuOhQ said:
If Pete gets another State, yes. Bernie will collect enough left-leaning States that Biden cannot afford to have another moderate siphon off delegates...

Well, Pete is only strong in the first two states, in all the following ones he's below 10% in the polls. Still, if he gains more momentum Biden would get squashed between Buttigieg and Bloomberg, and that's a horrible position to be in.



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Moren on 10 February 2020

If he gets fifth behind Klobuchar, he should just drop out after New Hampshire. I've lost confidence in his ability to win the Primary, and even the general.

Pete ended up being the best thing that could ever happen to Bernie Sanders.



DarthJarvis on 11 February 2020

Biden is doing awful.

Bernie isnt doing so great either considering he grabbed 60% last time around



DarthJarvis on 11 February 2020
SpokenTruth said:
DarthJarvis said:
Biden is doing awful.

Bernie isnt doing so great either considering he grabbed 60% last time around

There was also just 2 candidates in 2016.

Yes, but warren is like the only one cannibalizing votes from him. That's still not very good at 37% considering he was over 60 2016