Forums - Politics Discussion - Is Bidens campaign dead? (EDIT: Well, this was turned around completely.)

Is Biden's campaign no longer viable?

Yes, his campaign is dead! 31 46.97%
 
His campaign is badly hur... 14 21.21%
 
He will take a small hit,... 5 7.58%
 
No, this result will not hurt his campaign. 7 10.61%
 
Donald Trump will win the democratic primary! 9 13.64%
 
Total:66
SpokenTruth said:
Dulfite said:

Primary season always brings out the more extremes in the party, so just because there were more doesn't mean there will be more come general election. And if that is the case, then Trump will also be aided by that as he had extremely high turnout for an incumbant compared to Obama and Bush at least in Iowa (haven't checked NH or Nev yet).

Also, while Bernie appeals to typically non voting youths, he is very unappealing to typically voting elderly or middle aged people. So much so that that many of them will vote for third party, not at all, or Trump. If you go after one demographic you tend to alienate at least another one.

So we alienate the old moderates and left leaning Republicans who might not vote anymore but replace them with far left leaning youth who will be voting for the next several decades?

Well, golly....we call that a revolution.

Those ultra liberal youths will become more and more moderate, many even conservative, as they get older. Look back at any of the big youth movements from the roaring twenties to post ww2, to the hippie movement. They all eventually settled down. I once had a history teacher telle he was a diehard liberal until he became a father and then swung the other way. That is and will be the story of many.



Dulfite said:
Eagle367 said:
Yes. Now they are trying to make sure bernie only gets a plurality and not a majority so they can screw him over at the convention

The outcome I see is they are mad either way. Only  possfour outcomesible in my mind:

1) Sanders wins most delegates but then loses in second round of convention vote. Sanders voters are ticked and either don't vote at all in general election or vote third party to stick it to the moderate Democrats, costing them the election.

2) Sanders wins nomination, but because he is so far left there will be record low numbers of independents and moderate Republicans voting for the Democratic nominee, costing them the election plus losing probably 20-40 House seats and all competitiveness in close Senate races of swing States.

3) Sanders loses I'm first round and throws and doesn't really behind winner. Repeat results from option 1.

4) Sanders loses in outright and accepts it, endorses nominee, and campaigns for them. A moderate Democrats with the backing and campaigning of Sanders/Warren/Yang would probably beat Trump. This is the only option that could make them win 2020 down the ballot and the Presidency, but I also think it is the least likely to happen.

Either way, after 2016, of Sanders gets shafted again by superdelegates his supporters are going to lose their minds. May see the tea party of the left happen.

Option 2 is all wrong. Bernie has the most support among independents and non voters and the democratic base. In Nevada, he won among democrats that call themselves conservative and moderate. He won almost every demographic except he was 2nd among old African Americans. He constantly beats trump nationaly in polls and the only one who beats trump in many key swing states and beats him by the widest margin. People don't want a vanilla candidate. Biden, Bloomberg, Pete, Klaubaucher are Hillary Clinton and Clinton is Romney and Romney is Kerry and Kerry is Al Gore. History has shown us that those that excite the base and bring out the most people from the 40% non voters win the presidency. And Bill Clinton, bush, Obama and trump did that. And Bernie is doing it as well. 

Bernie is the most electable. The dems don't need republican votes to beat trump, they just need to excite their own base and make sure young people and non voters come to support them. The people who vote republican will either stay home or vote republican and the people who always bite democrat will vote for any dem candidate regardless. The people who don't do that are the ones that make the difference and if voter turn out is one, trump wins. Bernie brings in the voters. Pandering to the center made the democrats loose a 1000 seats and both houses and the presidency. If the ultimate moderate Clinton didn't win, what makes you think any of the others will? It's like banging your head against the wall over and over again and expecting a different result.

Bernie is not too far left. He is the most liked, most trusted candidate and right now, the most popular. People support his policies. This myth that you should pander to the center needs to die because this has driven the democratic party to the right so much that they are basically the centre right party. And it's why republicans keep winning again and again. 



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Dulfite said:
SpokenTruth said:

So we alienate the old moderates and left leaning Republicans who might not vote anymore but replace them with far left leaning youth who will be voting for the next several decades?

Well, golly....we call that a revolution.

Those ultra liberal youths will become more and more moderate, many even conservative, as they get older. Look back at any of the big youth movements from the roaring twenties to post ww2, to the hippie movement. They all eventually settled down. I once had a history teacher telle he was a diehard liberal until he became a father and then swung the other way. That is and will be the story of many.

Actually the average has moved to the left, not the people becoming more conservative. Ask the hippies whether they support what they supported back then and on avg, you'll see. Since your average is skewed for modern times, you can't really compare it that way. You have to ask the people back then what they believed and compare it to what they believe right now. 



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Dulfite said:
SpokenTruth said:

So we alienate the old moderates and left leaning Republicans who might not vote anymore but replace them with far left leaning youth who will be voting for the next several decades?

Well, golly....we call that a revolution.

Those ultra liberal youths will become more and more moderate, many even conservative, as they get older. Look back at any of the big youth movements from the roaring twenties to post ww2, to the hippie movement. They all eventually settled down. I once had a history teacher telle he was a diehard liberal until he became a father and then swung the other way. That is and will be the story of many.

This folk wisdom doesn't hold nearly as much truth as previous generations believed it did.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706889?journalCode=jop

https://www.insidehook.com/article/politics/millennials-voting-patterns



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Congrats Biden.

117 state and territory voting contents since 1988 and you finally won one.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

I'll be honest..Biden's campaign felt like it was dying but with the win in South Carolina and the dropping out of Pete and Steyer, it might rejuvenate his campaign a little.



axumblade said:
I'll be honest..Biden's campaign felt like it was dying but with the win in South Carolina and the dropping out of Pete and Steyer, it might rejuvenate his campaign a little.

He will definitely get a boost from it but not enough to change much.

I see too many people on social media basically saying this is a blue shell to Sanders and I want to reach through the screen and give them a math lesson.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
axumblade said:
I'll be honest..Biden's campaign felt like it was dying but with the win in South Carolina and the dropping out of Pete and Steyer, it might rejuvenate his campaign a little.

He will definitely get a boost from it but not enough to change much.

I see too many people on social media basically saying this is a blue shell to Sanders and I want to reach through the screen and give them a math lesson.

Eh. I'll say that unless there is a drastic change, Biden will not get the nomination. But it could end up leading to a contested convention, which doesn't secure Bernie a spot as the nominee. 



axumblade said:
SpokenTruth said:

He will definitely get a boost from it but not enough to change much.

I see too many people on social media basically saying this is a blue shell to Sanders and I want to reach through the screen and give them a math lesson.

Eh. I'll say that unless there is a drastic change, Biden will not get the nomination. But it could end up leading to a contested convention, which doesn't secure Bernie a spot as the nominee. 

Which seems to be the goal of the DNC itself so that it can select the candidate they want...rather than who the people want.

I am really curious if Biden will try to hang around to the convention.  He's low on money now that he spent the majority of what he had to secure South Carolina.  He hasn't spend much of anything in any ST state and nothing at all elsewhere. And his fundraising game was kind of weak to start with.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
axumblade said:

Eh. I'll say that unless there is a drastic change, Biden will not get the nomination. But it could end up leading to a contested convention, which doesn't secure Bernie a spot as the nominee. 

Which seems to be the goal of the DNC itself so that it can select the candidate they want...rather than who the people want.

I am really curious if Biden will try to hang around to the convention.  He's low on money now that he spent the majority of what he had to secure South Carolina.  He hasn't spend much of anything in any ST state and nothing at all elsewhere. And his fundraising game was kind of weak to start with.

It all depends on what happens tomorrow.  If Biden does well tomorrow the money will start coming in.  There plenty of big money Donner's that once it clear it between Sanders and Biden will start pouring there money in.