Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Switch pass Wii?

When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 4 3.20%
 
Early 2022 8 6.40%
 
Mid 2022 13 10.40%
 
Holiday 2022 33 26.40%
 
Early 2023 15 12.00%
 
Mid 2023 10 8.00%
 
Holiday 2023 15 12.00%
 
2024 or later 5 4.00%
 
Never 22 17.60%
 
Total:125
SpokenTruth said:
Eagle367 said:

And how likely is that?

- Insert arbitrary or irrational reason here -

 * Nintendo will pull support entirely before 2022.
 * PS5/Xbox X Series will eliminate demand for Switch.
 * Nintendo released all their big hitters already.
 * AlienWare UFO Concept device will kill Switch.
 * No reason....

You forgot to put meteor hitting nintendo's headquarters and apocalypse on that list.



curl-6 said:
Nu-13 said:

This needs to stop.

Agreed. 3rd party ports are not what's selling the Switch, and third parties aren't going to bother porting games to only a small subset of the Switch audience who own a Pro, it wouldn't be worth it. There's no need for a Switch Pro, especially not for the purpose of chasing 3rd party games. As Witcher 3 demonstrates, if they really want to bring their games over, they can do so on the base Switch. If they don't, a Pro model will not change their minds.

There are limits to that, though. As the next generation arrives, there will be attempts to make games that are cross-gen between PS4 and PS5. Those games will start to get really difficult to port as the PS5 gen continues. Xbox Series being cross gen with XBO for 2 years will mean that things won't really start to run away from the original Switch until 2022 or so, but the time will come, and really, sure 3rd party isn't selling the Switch, but it is part of what makes it the absolute phenomenon it has become, and come on, why wouldn't Nintendo want to keep them on board. Besides, things are starting to look like they will make a Pro, so whether it helps them or not, it looks like that's what they'll do. I think it could outsell the Wii regardless, and I think a Pro has risks that certainly don't guarantee some crazy success scenario, in fact I don't expect a crazy success scenario with or without a Pro model. But I do expect a Pro model, and I don't expect it to flop. I expect it to work about as well as the XBox One X and PS4 Pro, or the New 3DS for that matter. I really can't imagine why it would work fine for them but be an absolute disaster for the Switch.

So tell me, if Nintendo makes a Pro, will you bash them for it? Will you angrily cry out at them for their absolute stupidity of developing an unneeded upgrade that will split the base? Will you whine that they've betrayed their customers by making software that doesn't run or run as well on a base Switch? Because it's looking like they will make the Pro, and I guarantee you that they won't care if you don't like it or think it's not "worth it" or that you think there's "no need" for it. And I guarantee you I'll buy one, and enjoy it, and enjoy Mario Kart 9 when it comes out exclusively for the Pro, and probably Metroid Prime 4 too. I really don't get why so many people are not just doubtful, but critical or even angry at the possibility. If I'm wrong, I really don't give a shit. I don't think many people will be angry at Nintendo if they don't make a Pro. But plenty of us would like one nonetheless, and it astounds me just how critical and sometimes straight up pissed off people get at the very suggestion of the idea.



HylianSwordsman said:
curl-6 said:

Agreed. 3rd party ports are not what's selling the Switch, and third parties aren't going to bother porting games to only a small subset of the Switch audience who own a Pro, it wouldn't be worth it. There's no need for a Switch Pro, especially not for the purpose of chasing 3rd party games. As Witcher 3 demonstrates, if they really want to bring their games over, they can do so on the base Switch. If they don't, a Pro model will not change their minds.

There are limits to that, though. As the next generation arrives, there will be attempts to make games that are cross-gen between PS4 and PS5. Those games will start to get really difficult to port as the PS5 gen continues. Xbox Series being cross gen with XBO for 2 years will mean that things won't really start to run away from the original Switch until 2022 or so, but the time will come, and really, sure 3rd party isn't selling the Switch, but it is part of what makes it the absolute phenomenon it has become, and come on, why wouldn't Nintendo want to keep them on board. Besides, things are starting to look like they will make a Pro, so whether it helps them or not, it looks like that's what they'll do. I think it could outsell the Wii regardless, and I think a Pro has risks that certainly don't guarantee some crazy success scenario, in fact I don't expect a crazy success scenario with or without a Pro model. But I do expect a Pro model, and I don't expect it to flop. I expect it to work about as well as the XBox One X and PS4 Pro, or the New 3DS for that matter. I really can't imagine why it would work fine for them but be an absolute disaster for the Switch.

So tell me, if Nintendo makes a Pro, will you bash them for it? Will you angrily cry out at them for their absolute stupidity of developing an unneeded upgrade that will split the base? Will you whine that they've betrayed their customers by making software that doesn't run or run as well on a base Switch? Because it's looking like they will make the Pro, and I guarantee you that they won't care if you don't like it or think it's not "worth it" or that you think there's "no need" for it. And I guarantee you I'll buy one, and enjoy it, and enjoy Mario Kart 9 when it comes out exclusively for the Pro, and probably Metroid Prime 4 too. I really don't get why so many people are not just doubtful, but critical or even angry at the possibility. If I'm wrong, I really don't give a shit. I don't think many people will be angry at Nintendo if they don't make a Pro. But plenty of us would like one nonetheless, and it astounds me just how critical and sometimes straight up pissed off people get at the very suggestion of the idea.

Why would third parties, who can barely be bothered making games for the entire Switch userbase, spend the time and resources to port a game that can only be played on a small subset of that userbase? You might get one or two examples, like Xenoblade on the New 3DS, but a Switch Pro would not significantly improve third party support, and even if it did the kind of games that would require stronger hardware aren't what is selling the Switch, so making new Switch hardware for the purpose of chasing third party ports pretty much a pointless exercise.

The whole mindset of "Nintendo needs AAA third party support to succeed" has been proven wrong by the Switch's success thus far.

miqdadi said:
The problem it may never pass it

Possible, but at this point highly unlikely.



Whether or not the Switch hits 100 million will depend on how long it lasts as Nintendo’s primary platform. I would personally assume it will average 20 million a year over the next 2 years. Taking that into account, I think the Switch *family* will hit the 100 million mark by holiday 2023.

I think the only thing that would keep this current iteration of Switch from hitting 100 million is if Nintendo releases a Switch 2 in 2021 or 2022. But even if Nintendo does do that, the Switch family/brand would still hit 100 million by 2023.



curl-6 said:
HylianSwordsman said:

There are limits to that, though. As the next generation arrives, there will be attempts to make games that are cross-gen between PS4 and PS5. Those games will start to get really difficult to port as the PS5 gen continues. Xbox Series being cross gen with XBO for 2 years will mean that things won't really start to run away from the original Switch until 2022 or so, but the time will come, and really, sure 3rd party isn't selling the Switch, but it is part of what makes it the absolute phenomenon it has become, and come on, why wouldn't Nintendo want to keep them on board. Besides, things are starting to look like they will make a Pro, so whether it helps them or not, it looks like that's what they'll do. I think it could outsell the Wii regardless, and I think a Pro has risks that certainly don't guarantee some crazy success scenario, in fact I don't expect a crazy success scenario with or without a Pro model. But I do expect a Pro model, and I don't expect it to flop. I expect it to work about as well as the XBox One X and PS4 Pro, or the New 3DS for that matter. I really can't imagine why it would work fine for them but be an absolute disaster for the Switch.

So tell me, if Nintendo makes a Pro, will you bash them for it? Will you angrily cry out at them for their absolute stupidity of developing an unneeded upgrade that will split the base? Will you whine that they've betrayed their customers by making software that doesn't run or run as well on a base Switch? Because it's looking like they will make the Pro, and I guarantee you that they won't care if you don't like it or think it's not "worth it" or that you think there's "no need" for it. And I guarantee you I'll buy one, and enjoy it, and enjoy Mario Kart 9 when it comes out exclusively for the Pro, and probably Metroid Prime 4 too. I really don't get why so many people are not just doubtful, but critical or even angry at the possibility. If I'm wrong, I really don't give a shit. I don't think many people will be angry at Nintendo if they don't make a Pro. But plenty of us would like one nonetheless, and it astounds me just how critical and sometimes straight up pissed off people get at the very suggestion of the idea.

Why would third parties, who can barely be bothered making games for the entire Switch userbase, spend the time and resources to port a game that can only be played on a small subset of that userbase? You might get one or two examples, like Xenoblade on the New 3DS, but a Switch Pro would not significantly improve third party support, and even if it did the kind of games that would require stronger hardware aren't what is selling the Switch, so making new Switch hardware for the purpose of chasing third party ports pretty much a pointless exercise.

The whole mindset of "Nintendo needs AAA third party support to succeed" has been proven wrong by the Switch's success thus far.

miqdadi said:
The problem it may never pass it

Possible, but at this point highly unlikely.

I'm not remotely arguing that Nintendo needs third party. I'm arguing that Nintendo looks likely to make a Pro model for the Switch whether it needs it or not, that as the 9th gen goes on that eventually the meager offerings Nintendo gets from 3rd parties will only be ported to the Pro model, and that all of this is fine and you all need to adjust to the reality that will be the Switch Pro because if you really don't care at all about it I doubt it will affect you that much beyond a few games Nintendo makes to take advantage of it and to support it. Stop shoving your narrative onto me, I'm not a "Nintendo needs AAA 3rd party support" guy, I'm just guessing what I think might happen. I'm not trying to pretend I make Nintendo's business decisions for them, or that I begin to understand their logic (I don't most of the time), but I think they're making a Switch Pro and I'm going to buy it if they do, and probably the 3rd parties, whether Nintendo "needs them" or not, are going to make Switch Pro exclusive ports. If I'm wrong and there's no Switch Pro, I'd still bet on the Switch passing Wii. I've never thought otherwise, even when the hybrid console was just a rumor.



HylianSwordsman said:
curl-6 said:

Why would third parties, who can barely be bothered making games for the entire Switch userbase, spend the time and resources to port a game that can only be played on a small subset of that userbase? You might get one or two examples, like Xenoblade on the New 3DS, but a Switch Pro would not significantly improve third party support, and even if it did the kind of games that would require stronger hardware aren't what is selling the Switch, so making new Switch hardware for the purpose of chasing third party ports pretty much a pointless exercise.

The whole mindset of "Nintendo needs AAA third party support to succeed" has been proven wrong by the Switch's success thus far.

Possible, but at this point highly unlikely.

I'm not remotely arguing that Nintendo needs third party. I'm arguing that Nintendo looks likely to make a Pro model for the Switch whether it needs it or not, that as the 9th gen goes on that eventually the meager offerings Nintendo gets from 3rd parties will only be ported to the Pro model, and that all of this is fine and you all need to adjust to the reality that will be the Switch Pro because if you really don't care at all about it I doubt it will affect you that much beyond a few games Nintendo makes to take advantage of it and to support it. Stop shoving your narrative onto me, I'm not a "Nintendo needs AAA 3rd party support" guy, I'm just guessing what I think might happen. I'm not trying to pretend I make Nintendo's business decisions for them, or that I begin to understand their logic (I don't most of the time), but I think they're making a Switch Pro and I'm going to buy it if they do, and probably the 3rd parties, whether Nintendo "needs them" or not, are going to make Switch Pro exclusive ports. If I'm wrong and there's no Switch Pro, I'd still bet on the Switch passing Wii. I've never thought otherwise, even when the hybrid console was just a rumor.

The part I took issue with was "a $300 Switch Pro that approaches the level of the original PS4, I think that could keep the 3rd party ports coming and the momentum growing", which seemed to me to suggest that maintaining momentum requires third party ports that only a Pro model would provide.



curl-6 said:
HylianSwordsman said:

I'm not remotely arguing that Nintendo needs third party. I'm arguing that Nintendo looks likely to make a Pro model for the Switch whether it needs it or not, that as the 9th gen goes on that eventually the meager offerings Nintendo gets from 3rd parties will only be ported to the Pro model, and that all of this is fine and you all need to adjust to the reality that will be the Switch Pro because if you really don't care at all about it I doubt it will affect you that much beyond a few games Nintendo makes to take advantage of it and to support it. Stop shoving your narrative onto me, I'm not a "Nintendo needs AAA 3rd party support" guy, I'm just guessing what I think might happen. I'm not trying to pretend I make Nintendo's business decisions for them, or that I begin to understand their logic (I don't most of the time), but I think they're making a Switch Pro and I'm going to buy it if they do, and probably the 3rd parties, whether Nintendo "needs them" or not, are going to make Switch Pro exclusive ports. If I'm wrong and there's no Switch Pro, I'd still bet on the Switch passing Wii. I've never thought otherwise, even when the hybrid console was just a rumor.

The part I took issue with was "a $300 Switch Pro that approaches the level of the original PS4, I think that could keep the 3rd party ports coming and the momentum growing", which seemed to me to suggest that maintaining momentum requires third party ports that only a Pro model would provide.

No, it will accomplish both of those things separately, not because of one another. Without a Pro, there will come a point in the 9th gen when games won't be ported back to the original Switch, as few and far between as those already are. With the Pro, I think the current trickle will continue. Also, the marketing hype around the upgrade will keep momentum growing, like the DSi did for the DS and the New 3DS did for the 3DS. This will just be the first time a Pro model of a Nintendo console will affect Nintendo's home console experience. 



HylianSwordsman said:
curl-6 said:

Agreed. 3rd party ports are not what's selling the Switch, and third parties aren't going to bother porting games to only a small subset of the Switch audience who own a Pro, it wouldn't be worth it. There's no need for a Switch Pro, especially not for the purpose of chasing 3rd party games. As Witcher 3 demonstrates, if they really want to bring their games over, they can do so on the base Switch. If they don't, a Pro model will not change their minds.

There are limits to that, though. As the next generation arrives, there will be attempts to make games that are cross-gen between PS4 and PS5. Those games will start to get really difficult to port as the PS5 gen continues. Xbox Series being cross gen with XBO for 2 years will mean that things won't really start to run away from the original Switch until 2022 or so, but the time will come, and really, sure 3rd party isn't selling the Switch, but it is part of what makes it the absolute phenomenon it has become, and come on, why wouldn't Nintendo want to keep them on board. Besides, things are starting to look like they will make a Pro, so whether it helps them or not, it looks like that's what they'll do. I think it could outsell the Wii regardless, and I think a Pro has risks that certainly don't guarantee some crazy success scenario, in fact I don't expect a crazy success scenario with or without a Pro model. But I do expect a Pro model, and I don't expect it to flop. I expect it to work about as well as the XBox One X and PS4 Pro, or the New 3DS for that matter. I really can't imagine why it would work fine for them but be an absolute disaster for the Switch.

So tell me, if Nintendo makes a Pro, will you bash them for it? Will you angrily cry out at them for their absolute stupidity of developing an unneeded upgrade that will split the base? Will you whine that they've betrayed their customers by making software that doesn't run or run as well on a base Switch? Because it's looking like they will make the Pro, and I guarantee you that they won't care if you don't like it or think it's not "worth it" or that you think there's "no need" for it. And I guarantee you I'll buy one, and enjoy it, and enjoy Mario Kart 9 when it comes out exclusively for the Pro, and probably Metroid Prime 4 too. I really don't get why so many people are not just doubtful, but critical or even angry at the possibility. If I'm wrong, I really don't give a shit. I don't think many people will be angry at Nintendo if they don't make a Pro. But plenty of us would like one nonetheless, and it astounds me just how critical and sometimes straight up pissed off people get at the very suggestion of the idea.

Until later in 2022, most multiplatform games will have started development on ps4 and merely be ported (or just run in 4k on the 10th gen consoles through BC, like a souped up ps4 pro and x1x). Meaning the switch doesn't have hardware barriers on getting multiplatforms until then. And after that it doesn't matter because it will be time fot the switch 2. And it was said many times that even if hardware was a problem for ports, a stronger switch revision wouldn't change that due to small base.



Nu-13 said:
HylianSwordsman said:

There are limits to that, though. As the next generation arrives, there will be attempts to make games that are cross-gen between PS4 and PS5. Those games will start to get really difficult to port as the PS5 gen continues. Xbox Series being cross gen with XBO for 2 years will mean that things won't really start to run away from the original Switch until 2022 or so, but the time will come, and really, sure 3rd party isn't selling the Switch, but it is part of what makes it the absolute phenomenon it has become, and come on, why wouldn't Nintendo want to keep them on board. Besides, things are starting to look like they will make a Pro, so whether it helps them or not, it looks like that's what they'll do. I think it could outsell the Wii regardless, and I think a Pro has risks that certainly don't guarantee some crazy success scenario, in fact I don't expect a crazy success scenario with or without a Pro model. But I do expect a Pro model, and I don't expect it to flop. I expect it to work about as well as the XBox One X and PS4 Pro, or the New 3DS for that matter. I really can't imagine why it would work fine for them but be an absolute disaster for the Switch.

So tell me, if Nintendo makes a Pro, will you bash them for it? Will you angrily cry out at them for their absolute stupidity of developing an unneeded upgrade that will split the base? Will you whine that they've betrayed their customers by making software that doesn't run or run as well on a base Switch? Because it's looking like they will make the Pro, and I guarantee you that they won't care if you don't like it or think it's not "worth it" or that you think there's "no need" for it. And I guarantee you I'll buy one, and enjoy it, and enjoy Mario Kart 9 when it comes out exclusively for the Pro, and probably Metroid Prime 4 too. I really don't get why so many people are not just doubtful, but critical or even angry at the possibility. If I'm wrong, I really don't give a shit. I don't think many people will be angry at Nintendo if they don't make a Pro. But plenty of us would like one nonetheless, and it astounds me just how critical and sometimes straight up pissed off people get at the very suggestion of the idea.

Until later in 2022, most multiplatform games will have started development on ps4 and merely be ported (or just run in 4k on the 10th gen consoles through BC, like a souped up ps4 pro and x1x). Meaning the switch doesn't have hardware barriers on getting multiplatforms until then. And after that it doesn't matter because it will be time fot the switch 2. And it was said many times that even if hardware was a problem for ports, a stronger switch revision wouldn't change that due to small base.

I agree, minus the last two sentences. I think Switch 2 comes in 2024. And I think any Switch model will do well enough to justify the meager ports we've gotten thus far. If they'd make Witcher 3 for 40 million Switch consoles, they'll make the 2022 titles for the 40 million consoles the Switch Pro will likely have by then. We don't get every port, but thus far we've gotten the ones I've cared about: Skyrim, Witcher 3, Crash, Spyro, and Outer Worlds. It's not a lot, and a Switch Pro wouldn't get us a lot more, but it's some, and a Switch Pro would probably get us a few more. Switch stands a great chance of beating Wii no matter what happens though. Pro model or not. 



HylianSwordsman said:
curl-6 said:

The part I took issue with was "a $300 Switch Pro that approaches the level of the original PS4, I think that could keep the 3rd party ports coming and the momentum growing", which seemed to me to suggest that maintaining momentum requires third party ports that only a Pro model would provide.

No, it will accomplish both of those things separately, not because of one another. Without a Pro, there will come a point in the 9th gen when games won't be ported back to the original Switch, as few and far between as those already are. With the Pro, I think the current trickle will continue. Also, the marketing hype around the upgrade will keep momentum growing, like the DSi did for the DS and the New 3DS did for the 3DS. This will just be the first time a Pro model of a Nintendo console will affect Nintendo's home console experience. 

Ah, I see what you mean. I don't necessarily agree, but I get you now. I just find it doubtful third parties will port much to a subset of the Switch base when they can hardly be bothered porting to the entire base. And I think Switch could do just fine without them and doesn't really need it.