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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts December 2019 Discussion Thread

curl-6 on 26 January 2020
trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Xbox One vs PlayStation 3 in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

XOne Vs. PS3 US:

Gap change in latest month: 83,252 – PS3

Gap change over last 12 months: 475,757 – PS3

Total Lead: 3,836,107 - XOne

XOne Total Sales: 27,486,776

PS3 Total Sales: 23,650,669

And with that, even in its weakened state, Xbox's current gen performance beats Playstation's last gen performance in the US.

Shows how much of a stumble PS3 was and that while it may struggle worldwide, the Xbox brand still has some power left in America.



The_Liquid_Laser on 26 January 2020
trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Xbox One vs PlayStation 3 in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

XOne Vs. PS3 US:

Gap change in latest month: 83,252 – PS3

Gap change over last 12 months: 475,757 – PS3

Total Lead: 3,836,107 - XOne

XOne Total Sales: 27,486,776

PS3 Total Sales: 23,650,669

I think there is some closing of the gap coming up.  XB1 is all but done, while PS3 had some decent legs, especially compared to how it started.  I don't think PS3 will quite catch up to XB1, but the gap will be closer in the end.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

curl-6 on 27 January 2020
trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

PS4 vs PS3 in Japan – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

PS4 Vs. PS3 Japan:

Gap change in latest month: 178,792 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 163,742 – PS3

Total Lead: 276,716 – PS4

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 8,748,755

PlayStation 3 Total Sales: 8,472,039

The big discounts and promotions for PS4 helped it out in December, but this should still be a close race with PS4 sales plummeting back to sub-10k per week by now.



Moren on 28 January 2020

I'm really happy about Switch vs WiiU + 3DS.

I had my doubts at the start, but this will be an easy win.



The_Liquid_Laser on 28 January 2020

That's not even going to be close going forward.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

curl-6 on 28 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

The big discounts and promotions for PS4 helped it out in December, but this should still be a close race with PS4 sales plummeting back to sub-10k per week by now.

This won't be a close race. The PS3 sold 420k units in the upcoming three months of the comparison (month 72-74) while the PS4 will do about 150k in the same timeframe. That will eradicate the current gap and make it hover around 0 in three months time and the PS3 will build its lead from there.

In the following twelve months the PS3 sold 880k (entirety of 2013). The comparable timeframe for the PS4 stretches from April 2020 to March 2021. The PS5 is expected to launch during the later months of that period which isn't going to help the PS4.

Alternatively, you can project yearly PS4 sales from here on out. The PS4 sold close to 1.2m in 2019. ~700k in 2020, ~300k in 2021, ~50k in 2022. Even if you bump those yearly projections by 100k each, you'd still only arrive at lifetime sales of 10.1m units. The PS3 finished at 10.47m.

It looks like it's a foregone conclusion that the PS4 won't reach PS3 numbers, so the next best goal for the PS4 is to reach the 10m mark.

That's assuming no price cut for PS4 though, right? Promotions seem to show it jumps up quite a bit when the price is lowered.

trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Switch vs Wii in Japan – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Switch Vs. Wii Japan:

Gap change in latest month: 861,348 - NS

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,949,618 - NS

Total Lead: 3,044,248 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 11,627,506

Wii Total Sales: 8,583,258

So Wii managed to hold onto its lead for nearly two years. The Switch is a runaway express train by this point though, there's no stopping it.



zorg1000 on 29 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

That's assuming no price cut for PS4 though, right? Promotions seem to show it jumps up quite a bit when the price is lowered.

The price cut scenario is what can get the PS4 barely above 10m.

Promotions show big jumps because they create a sense of urgency, unlike a permanent price cut. What you get with a promotion is a high concentration of sales within a couple of weeks whereas a price cut would have an initial boost that levels off continuously and bottoms out at a baseline that is only slightly higher than before the price cut. That's why promotions don't paint an accurate picture of the effect a price cut would have. A two week long promotion leads to at least twice as many sales as a permanent price cut would see during its first two weeks and said multiplier grows bigger the more promotions there have been between the timing of two permanent price cuts.

Considering how many promotions the PS4 has had already, the effect of a permanent price cut is going to be limited because a lot of the people who were waiting for a cheaper PS4 have had multiple chances to get one already and the absence of a price cut for 3+ years led more and more people to take advantage of promotions.

On top of that we are seeing diminishing returns from these temporary promotions.

In the US, PS4 has been $199 on black Friday week for 3 years in a row and despite adding more value to the bundle each year (2017-no game, 2018-1 game, 2019-3 games) sales have also declined each year.

Then there is December where PS4 was $249 w/3 games for 2 full weeks yet sales were down YoY despite having no discount last year.

The idea that a price cut will stop the declines or cause prolonged legs isnt rational.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 29 January 2020
zorg1000 said:
RolStoppable said:

The price cut scenario is what can get the PS4 barely above 10m.

Promotions show big jumps because they create a sense of urgency, unlike a permanent price cut. What you get with a promotion is a high concentration of sales within a couple of weeks whereas a price cut would have an initial boost that levels off continuously and bottoms out at a baseline that is only slightly higher than before the price cut. That's why promotions don't paint an accurate picture of the effect a price cut would have. A two week long promotion leads to at least twice as many sales as a permanent price cut would see during its first two weeks and said multiplier grows bigger the more promotions there have been between the timing of two permanent price cuts.

Considering how many promotions the PS4 has had already, the effect of a permanent price cut is going to be limited because a lot of the people who were waiting for a cheaper PS4 have had multiple chances to get one already and the absence of a price cut for 3+ years led more and more people to take advantage of promotions.

On top of that we are seeing diminishing returns from these temporary promotions.

In the US, PS4 has been $199 on black Friday week for 3 years in a row and despite adding more value to the bundle each year (2017-no game, 2018-1 game, 2019-3 games) sales have also declined each year.

Then there is December where PS4 was $249 w/3 games for 2 full weeks yet sales were down YoY despite having no discount last year.

The idea that a price cut will stop the declines or cause prolonged legs isnt rational.

I never claimed it would avert the decline, it's too late in the system's lifespan for that, I meant more that it would soften said decline.



zorg1000 on 29 January 2020
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

On top of that we are seeing diminishing returns from these temporary promotions.

In the US, PS4 has been $199 on black Friday week for 3 years in a row and despite adding more value to the bundle each year (2017-no game, 2018-1 game, 2019-3 games) sales have also declined each year.

Then there is December where PS4 was $249 w/3 games for 2 full weeks yet sales were down YoY despite having no discount last year.

The idea that a price cut will stop the declines or cause prolonged legs isnt rational.

I never claimed it would avert the decline, it's too late in the system's lifespan for that, I meant more that it would soften said decline.

I wasnt referring to you, been a couple posters with unrealistic predictions about this year and beyond.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.