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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts December 2019 Discussion Thread

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It only looks close, because 2018 was kind of a "meh" year for the Switch, so that makes the PS4 look competitive.  Switch is about to pull ahead of PS4 for good.

That's a bold claim; I don't doubt Switch will sell well this year and 2021, but I'm skeptical whether Nintendo will push it hard enough beyond that for it to match PS4's legs in the long run.

The Switch is actually a very different animal than a system like the Wii.  Nintendo won't support of it so suddenly like they did the Wii.  They only have to support one system at a time now instead of splitting resources between home and handheld markets.  Also Switch style games are a better fit for Nintendo's developers compared to Wii style games.  Their developers prefer to make these types of games.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

That's a bold claim; I don't doubt Switch will sell well this year and 2021, but I'm skeptical whether Nintendo will push it hard enough beyond that for it to match PS4's legs in the long run.

The Switch is actually a very different animal than a system like the Wii.  Nintendo won't support of it so suddenly like they did the Wii.  They only have to support one system at a time now instead of splitting resources between home and handheld markets.  Also Switch style games are a better fit for Nintendo's developers compared to Wii style games.  Their developers prefer to make these types of games.

If Nintendo are smart they'll push the Switch for years to come, but what worries me is Nintendo have a long history of being really, really stupid at times.



curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The Switch is actually a very different animal than a system like the Wii.  Nintendo won't support of it so suddenly like they did the Wii.  They only have to support one system at a time now instead of splitting resources between home and handheld markets.  Also Switch style games are a better fit for Nintendo's developers compared to Wii style games.  Their developers prefer to make these types of games.

If Nintendo are smart they'll push the Switch for years to come, but what worries me is Nintendo have a long history of being really, really stupid at times.

Yeah, I agree that Nintendo can be stupid.  The dumb thing I am more worried about is that the next console won't be a hybrid like the Switch.  It would be dumb not to simply have a Switch 2 replace the Switch when the proper time comes. 

But they have said that they plan to support the Switch for many years, and I believe them when they say this.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

If Nintendo are smart they'll push the Switch for years to come, but what worries me is Nintendo have a long history of being really, really stupid at times.

Yeah, I agree that Nintendo can be stupid.  The dumb thing I am more worried about is that the next console won't be a hybrid like the Switch.  It would be dumb not to simply have a Switch 2 replace the Switch when the proper time comes. 

But they have said that they plan to support the Switch for many years, and I believe them when they say this.

I guess time will tell.

I never thought I'd say this, as in recent years I've generally been bored by systems that are just more powerful versions of their predecessors, but in this case, yeah, I really hope Nintendo's next system is a regular Switch 2 rather than something like Wii U or 3DS that tries to be different in the wrong way.



trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Switch vs 3DS and Wii U – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U Global:

Gap change in latest month: 1,324,863 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 3,046,464 – Switch

Total Lead: 76,633 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 49,808,000

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 49,731,367

Nice, Switch breaks ahead, and with 3DS and Wii U being as front-loaded as they were, they'll be no going back now.



These charts really show, to me at least, that the switch is nintendo's leggiest console in a very long time. Even in the PS4 comparison, against a console with a long sales curve, the period where switch has caught up the most is in its third year. I know that in the twilight years switch likely will fall behind PS4 again, but its still amazing to watch a nintendo console hold up so well not just out the gate.

Also, it is interesting that the 3DS had sold half of its LTD number at this point in time. That basically infers that in the worst case scenario, switch will sell at least 100 million (double its current number), and that given how much less front-loaded it is, it has a pretty great chance at selling something like 115+ million.



trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

PS4 vs Xbox One in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

PS4 Vs. XOne US:

Gap change in latest month: 26,962 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 864,715 – PS4

Total Lead: 4,593,568 – PS4

PS4 Total Sales: 32,080,344

Xbox One Total Sales: 27,486,776

It'd be crazy if Xbox goes from being first place in the US in the 7th gen so being outsold there by both PS4 and Switch, which looks quite likely to eventually happen. Quite the tumble.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 19 January 2020

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

I'd be crazy if Xbox goes from being first place in the US in the 7th gen so being outsold there by both PS4 and Switch, which looks quite likely to eventually happen. Quite the tumble.

It is a bit of a fall, but I am not sure there has been a fall like there was with the Wii to the Wii U or PSP to PS Vita. 

In terms of percentage, pretty sure those two are unparalleled. In terms of raw numbers, PS3 fell by 70 million from PS2, which is more than PSP to Vita.



After a disastrous launch Xbox One has sold quite well in America, all things considered. Odds of the XSX outselling the PS5 in the USA are high.



trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

In terms of percentage, pretty sure those two are unparalleled. In terms of raw numbers, PS3 fell by 70 million from PS2, which is more than PSP to Vita.

Thinking about it, the DS to 3DS drop is probably the biggest when you look at the raw numbers. 

Yeah, that one's a drop of 80 million. Yowch.

If there's one thing that's been demonstrated many times in this industry, it's that great success or miserable failure is never a guarantee the successor will follow the same path.