Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts December 2019 Discussion Thread

curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

This won't be a close race. The PS3 sold 420k units in the upcoming three months of the comparison (month 72-74) while the PS4 will do about 150k in the same timeframe. That will eradicate the current gap and make it hover around 0 in three months time and the PS3 will build its lead from there.

In the following twelve months the PS3 sold 880k (entirety of 2013). The comparable timeframe for the PS4 stretches from April 2020 to March 2021. The PS5 is expected to launch during the later months of that period which isn't going to help the PS4.

Alternatively, you can project yearly PS4 sales from here on out. The PS4 sold close to 1.2m in 2019. ~700k in 2020, ~300k in 2021, ~50k in 2022. Even if you bump those yearly projections by 100k each, you'd still only arrive at lifetime sales of 10.1m units. The PS3 finished at 10.47m.

It looks like it's a foregone conclusion that the PS4 won't reach PS3 numbers, so the next best goal for the PS4 is to reach the 10m mark.

That's assuming no price cut for PS4 though, right? Promotions seem to show it jumps up quite a bit when the price is lowered.

trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Switch vs Wii in Japan – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Switch Vs. Wii Japan:

Gap change in latest month: 861,348 - NS

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,949,618 - NS

Total Lead: 3,044,248 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 11,627,506

Wii Total Sales: 8,583,258

So Wii managed to hold onto its lead for nearly two years. The Switch is a runaway express train by this point though, there's no stopping it.

It won't be long until the Switch passes the lifetime sales of the Wii in Japan. Out of all regions it will take the longest for the Switch to top the Wii in the US.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

This won't be a close race. The PS3 sold 420k units in the upcoming three months of the comparison (month 72-74) while the PS4 will do about 150k in the same timeframe. That will eradicate the current gap and make it hover around 0 in three months time and the PS3 will build its lead from there.

In the following twelve months the PS3 sold 880k (entirety of 2013). The comparable timeframe for the PS4 stretches from April 2020 to March 2021. The PS5 is expected to launch during the later months of that period which isn't going to help the PS4.

Alternatively, you can project yearly PS4 sales from here on out. The PS4 sold close to 1.2m in 2019. ~700k in 2020, ~300k in 2021, ~50k in 2022. Even if you bump those yearly projections by 100k each, you'd still only arrive at lifetime sales of 10.1m units. The PS3 finished at 10.47m.

It looks like it's a foregone conclusion that the PS4 won't reach PS3 numbers, so the next best goal for the PS4 is to reach the 10m mark.

That's assuming no price cut for PS4 though, right? Promotions seem to show it jumps up quite a bit when the price is lowered.

The price cut scenario is what can get the PS4 barely above 10m.

Promotions show big jumps because they create a sense of urgency, unlike a permanent price cut. What you get with a promotion is a high concentration of sales within a couple of weeks whereas a price cut would have an initial boost that levels off continuously and bottoms out at a baseline that is only slightly higher than before the price cut. That's why promotions don't paint an accurate picture of the effect a price cut would have. A two week long promotion leads to at least twice as many sales as a permanent price cut would see during its first two weeks and said multiplier grows bigger the more promotions there have been between the timing of two permanent price cuts.

Considering how many promotions the PS4 has had already, the effect of a permanent price cut is going to be limited because a lot of the people who were waiting for a cheaper PS4 have had multiple chances to get one already and the absence of a price cut for 3+ years led more and more people to take advantage of promotions.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

That's assuming no price cut for PS4 though, right? Promotions seem to show it jumps up quite a bit when the price is lowered.

The price cut scenario is what can get the PS4 barely above 10m.

Promotions show big jumps because they create a sense of urgency, unlike a permanent price cut. What you get with a promotion is a high concentration of sales within a couple of weeks whereas a price cut would have an initial boost that levels off continuously and bottoms out at a baseline that is only slightly higher than before the price cut. That's why promotions don't paint an accurate picture of the effect a price cut would have. A two week long promotion leads to at least twice as many sales as a permanent price cut would see during its first two weeks and said multiplier grows bigger the more promotions there have been between the timing of two permanent price cuts.

Considering how many promotions the PS4 has had already, the effect of a permanent price cut is going to be limited because a lot of the people who were waiting for a cheaper PS4 have had multiple chances to get one already and the absence of a price cut for 3+ years led more and more people to take advantage of promotions.

On top of that we are seeing diminishing returns from these temporary promotions.

In the US, PS4 has been $199 on black Friday week for 3 years in a row and despite adding more value to the bundle each year (2017-no game, 2018-1 game, 2019-3 games) sales have also declined each year.

Then there is December where PS4 was $249 w/3 games for 2 full weeks yet sales were down YoY despite having no discount last year.

The idea that a price cut will stop the declines or cause prolonged legs isnt rational.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
RolStoppable said:

The price cut scenario is what can get the PS4 barely above 10m.

Promotions show big jumps because they create a sense of urgency, unlike a permanent price cut. What you get with a promotion is a high concentration of sales within a couple of weeks whereas a price cut would have an initial boost that levels off continuously and bottoms out at a baseline that is only slightly higher than before the price cut. That's why promotions don't paint an accurate picture of the effect a price cut would have. A two week long promotion leads to at least twice as many sales as a permanent price cut would see during its first two weeks and said multiplier grows bigger the more promotions there have been between the timing of two permanent price cuts.

Considering how many promotions the PS4 has had already, the effect of a permanent price cut is going to be limited because a lot of the people who were waiting for a cheaper PS4 have had multiple chances to get one already and the absence of a price cut for 3+ years led more and more people to take advantage of promotions.

On top of that we are seeing diminishing returns from these temporary promotions.

In the US, PS4 has been $199 on black Friday week for 3 years in a row and despite adding more value to the bundle each year (2017-no game, 2018-1 game, 2019-3 games) sales have also declined each year.

Then there is December where PS4 was $249 w/3 games for 2 full weeks yet sales were down YoY despite having no discount last year.

The idea that a price cut will stop the declines or cause prolonged legs isnt rational.

I never claimed it would avert the decline, it's too late in the system's lifespan for that, I meant more that it would soften said decline.



I didn't think there would be a direct this week, cos I'm a pessimistic dunce.

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

On top of that we are seeing diminishing returns from these temporary promotions.

In the US, PS4 has been $199 on black Friday week for 3 years in a row and despite adding more value to the bundle each year (2017-no game, 2018-1 game, 2019-3 games) sales have also declined each year.

Then there is December where PS4 was $249 w/3 games for 2 full weeks yet sales were down YoY despite having no discount last year.

The idea that a price cut will stop the declines or cause prolonged legs isnt rational.

I never claimed it would avert the decline, it's too late in the system's lifespan for that, I meant more that it would soften said decline.

I wasnt referring to you, been a couple posters with unrealistic predictions about this year and beyond.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

@trunkswd

are these coming soon ?
PS4 vs DS in europe
switch vs 360 in US
switch vs 360 in europe
switch vs ps3 in europe
switch vs ps4 in europe



yo33331 said:
@trunkswd

are these coming soon ?
PS4 vs DS in europe
switch vs 360 in US
switch vs 360 in europe
switch vs ps3 in europe
switch vs ps4 in europe

I'll have to take a look to see if they are worth doing or not. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

trunkswd said:
yo33331 said:
@trunkswd

are these coming soon ?
PS4 vs DS in europe
switch vs 360 in US
switch vs 360 in europe
switch vs ps3 in europe
switch vs ps4 in europe

I'll have to take a look to see if they are worth doing or not. 

They worth, I looked at every chart scenario that might be interesting and these ones are either close or to check how one is doing compare to other, and each of them has some chance of passing the other in the long run. Please make them