Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

HylianSwordsman said:

You declared yourself correct without even properly responding to his argument. You've been saying you don't watch Youtube videos for literal months, since the beginning of the "dedicated politics threads" era, really. It's lazy, a cop-out, and intellectually dishonest to act like you can adequately respond to people without watching their response. Just because you're too lazy to watch a video doesn't mean you can dismiss people's arguments.

I'm not going to respond to some random YouTuber's take.  If I wanted to do that, I'd go to YouTube and comment there directly.  If you want to talk to me, then you need to bring in your own opinion, not borrow someone else's.

What I did respond to was the portion of his post that was his own words.

As for your articles, I didn't make a blanket statement that people get conservative as they grow older, so they do not contradict me.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-south-carolina-poll/

A poll on the debate. From the looks of it:

1. Sanders and Buttigieg got the best ratings, but relative to his popularity Sanders could have done better.

2. Steyer and Bloomberg got the worst ratings, so that crowd was definitely not representative.

3. In terms of who actually gained or lost support (measured in "share considering voting for each candidate") Biden, Warren,and Klobuchar lost support, everyone else gained or stayed the same. But the changes weren't huge, Biden lost half a point, Warren and Klobuchar each lost 2 points. Sanders gained the most, but that was only 1.5%.

4. Everyone except Warren improved their favorability. Warren suffered the biggest gain in unfavorability and only loss in favorability, for a net loss. Klobuchar also gained some unfavorability, but made up for it with favorability. Bloomberg marginally improved but is still the only net negative favorability rating. Sanders improved half a point. Biden improved 4 and a half points, so probably had the best night in terms of favorability even if it didn't improve people considering voting for him.

So what I make from this is that the debate actually hurt Warren a little bit, improved Biden's image but not his position, Sanders held his ground, Bloomberg is hitting a ceiling and isn't likely to win enough support to even get a plurality no matter how many millions he spends (he's just not likeable), and Klobuchar faded into the background for most people. The debate is a wash, won't change the SC outcome or the primary as a whole very much if at all, and was just an ugly waste of everyone's time.

Last edited by HylianSwordsman - on 26 February 2020

HylianSwordsman said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-south-carolina-poll/

A poll on the debate. From the looks of it.

1. Sanders and Buttigieg got the best ratings, but relative to his popularity Sanders could have done better.

2. Steyer and Bloomberg got the worst ratings, so that crowd was definitely not representative.

3. In terms of who actually gained or lost support (measured in "share considering voting for each candidate") Biden, Warren,and Klobuchar lost support, everyone else gained or stayed the same. But the changes weren't huge, Biden lost half a point, Warren and Klobuchar each lost 2 points. Sanders gained the most, but that was only 1.5%.

4. Everyone except Warren improved their favorability. Warren suffered the biggest gain in unfavorability and only loss in favorability, for a net loss. Klobuchar also gained some unfavorability, but made up for it with favorability. Bloomberg marginally improved but is still the only net negative favorability rating. Sanders improved half a point. Biden improved 4 and a half points, so probably had the best night in terms of favorability even if it didn't improve people considering voting for him.

So what I make from this is that the debate actually hurt Warren a little bit, improved Biden's image but not his position, Sanders held his ground, Bloomberg is hitting a ceiling and isn't likely to win enough support to even get a plurality no matter how many millions he spends (he's just not likeable), and Klobuchar faded into the background for most people. The debate is a wash, won't change the SC outcome or the primary as a whole very much if at all, and was just an ugly waste of everyone's time.

Perfect summation.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
HylianSwordsman said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-south-carolina-poll/

A poll on the debate. From the looks of it.

1. Sanders and Buttigieg got the best ratings, but relative to his popularity Sanders could have done better.

2. Steyer and Bloomberg got the worst ratings, so that crowd was definitely not representative.

3. In terms of who actually gained or lost support (measured in "share considering voting for each candidate") Biden, Warren,and Klobuchar lost support, everyone else gained or stayed the same. But the changes weren't huge, Biden lost half a point, Warren and Klobuchar each lost 2 points. Sanders gained the most, but that was only 1.5%.

4. Everyone except Warren improved their favorability. Warren suffered the biggest gain in unfavorability and only loss in favorability, for a net loss. Klobuchar also gained some unfavorability, but made up for it with favorability. Bloomberg marginally improved but is still the only net negative favorability rating. Sanders improved half a point. Biden improved 4 and a half points, so probably had the best night in terms of favorability even if it didn't improve people considering voting for him.

So what I make from this is that the debate actually hurt Warren a little bit, improved Biden's image but not his position, Sanders held his ground, Bloomberg is hitting a ceiling and isn't likely to win enough support to even get a plurality no matter how many millions he spends (he's just not likeable), and Klobuchar faded into the background for most people. The debate is a wash, won't change the SC outcome or the primary as a whole very much if at all, and was just an ugly waste of everyone's time.

Perfect summation.

I mean that was my opinion before reading this 538 article, but it's nice to have some data to support me.



Do any of the candidates these drop before Super Tuesday?  Do any drop immediately after ST?

Polling:

Gabbard and Steyer are ~2% nationally.  Steyer at least looks good for SC at 15% but he's back to low single digits in all other states with current polling.

Klobuchar is at 5% nationally and only slightly better in a few Super Tuesday states.

Buttigieg is at 10% nationally and just at or less in most of the big upcoming states.

Money:

As of Jan 31, 2020.

Gabbard is hurting.  Just $2 million on hand with $600k in debt.

Klobuchar has $2.8 million in cash but hasn't spent very much either.  She's only raised half of Biden and 1/3rd of Warren.

Buttigieg has $6.6 million in cash and has out raised Biden but he's also spent a ton of his money.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:

Do any of the candidates these drop before Super Tuesday?  Do any drop immediately after ST?

Polling:

Gabbard and Steyer are ~2% nationally.  Steyer at least looks good for SC at 15% but he's back to low single digits in all other states with current polling.

Klobuchar is at 5% nationally and only slightly better in a few Super Tuesday states.

Buttigieg is at 10% nationally and just at or less in most of the big upcoming states.

Money:

As of Jan 31, 2020.

Gabbard is hurting.  Just $2 million on hand with $600k in debt.

Klobuchar has $2.8 million in cash but hasn't spent very much either.  She's only raised half of Biden and 1/3rd of Warren.

Buttigieg has $6.6 million in cash and has out raised Biden but he's also spent a ton of his money.

I fear Gabbard will have to drop out soon. She's in no position to win anything right now anyway

Other than her, I only see Steyer as a potential dropout right now if he's not gaining enough support in SC to get any delegates, as that's the state with his best polls by far.



SpokenTruth said:

Do any of the candidates these drop before Super Tuesday?  Do any drop immediately after ST?

Polling:

Gabbard and Steyer are ~2% nationally.  Steyer at least looks good for SC at 15% but he's back to low single digits in all other states with current polling.

Klobuchar is at 5% nationally and only slightly better in a few Super Tuesday states.

Buttigieg is at 10% nationally and just at or less in most of the big upcoming states.

Money:

As of Jan 31, 2020.

Gabbard is hurting.  Just $2 million on hand with $600k in debt.

Klobuchar has $2.8 million in cash but hasn't spent very much either.  She's only raised half of Biden and 1/3rd of Warren.

Buttigieg has $6.6 million in cash and has out raised Biden but he's also spent a ton of his money.

I actually don't know why Gabbard still sticks around. It made sense for her to wait for New Hampshire, as she had good polling there (comparatively). But it netted her nothing, she hasn't made the debates since then and she is out of the national discussion, as the conservatives now openly fear-mongering over Sanders. So I don't know when she will drop out, because she is already longer in than I expected.

For Steyer it hinges on South Carolina. If he can gain delegates, he has a path forward to the horse trading at the national convention. If not he probably will drop out. Even if he gains delegates in SC, it is among his best states. If he can't turn it into momentum for Super Tuesday, I see him dropping then.

Klobuchar and Warren have a difficult position. Interestingly Warren had good debates lately, but it doesn't seem to help her. But both will stick around to Super Tuesday. Klobuchar has the best polling in Minnesota, close in front of Sanders. Warren is close second behind Sanders in Massachusetts. That is what they are waiting for.

Buttigieg has decent national polling and can snatch some delegates here and there.

So I don't see anyone dropping out before Super Tuesday except maybe Steyer (if he underperforms in SC) and Gabbard (who should've dropped out before). They all will be waiting for Bloomberg and how big a splash he will be making by jumping into the pool.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Hah, why am I only now stumbling over this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjj7VJpqy1w



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Mike Bloombergs team had made up quotes from "Bernie Sanders" praising different dictators, follows it up with "This is satire" and deletes the quotes as inevitably it creates backlash?

Well, at least the hashtag they tried to start #BernieOnDespots now looks quite interesting:

And even conservative people thinking they had a gotcha about Sanders:



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

SpokenTruth said:

Do any of the candidates these drop before Super Tuesday?  Do any drop immediately after ST?

Polling:

Gabbard and Steyer are ~2% nationally.  Steyer at least looks good for SC at 15% but he's back to low single digits in all other states with current polling.

Klobuchar is at 5% nationally and only slightly better in a few Super Tuesday states.

Buttigieg is at 10% nationally and just at or less in most of the big upcoming states.

Money:

As of Jan 31, 2020.

Gabbard is hurting.  Just $2 million on hand with $600k in debt.

Klobuchar has $2.8 million in cash but hasn't spent very much either.  She's only raised half of Biden and 1/3rd of Warren.

Buttigieg has $6.6 million in cash and has out raised Biden but he's also spent a ton of his money.

With ST only 3 days after SC, I think everybody is going to be stubborn and wait it out. I think Gabbard, Steyer & Amy all drop our after ST though and maybe more depending on how it goes.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.