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After the major screwup in the democratic Iowa caucus we still have no definite data about the outcome. And while this makes it difficult to decide the winner, all the fragmented information we got points to a massive loss of Biden. He isn't even second or third, it seems he is fourth or fifth. And with a big gap to the three frontrunners.

The reported results on Wikipedia so far list Biden as fifth behind Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar with 13.2% in initial alignment and 11.08% in final alignment. The released numbers by the Sanders campaign covering about 40% of precincts show Biden in fourth with 13.83% in first count and 12.37% in final count. The Warren campaign issued a statement, that she is in a three-way fight for the lead with Biden being a distant fourth.

All these points alone wouldn't be too reliable, but together they paint the picture of a crushing loss for Biden.

It isn't even that he could recover in New Hampshire. He polls far behind Sanders there. In win in Nevada might turn things around, but it is also not very likely. So South Carolina is the first state that shows him leading the polls comfortably. But by then his main argument of electability could have been severely damaged, which would hurt him down the line.

So what do you think? Can Biden recover or is his campaign no longer viable?



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