Similar to this thread. 

At the moment the Wii has sold 64.7M and the PS3 + 360 have sold 68.05M combined. Meaning the Wii has to outsell the HD twins by 3.35M. 

This is equal to 67.3K a week. 

Personally I don't think it is going to happen. Sony and Microsoft are going to be way more aggressive this year in marketing. Both have motion control releases, which I don't believe will make too much difference themselves, but they should have big marketing campaigns with their launch. 

I also think the Wii won't have a price cut this year (because it won't need to), where as the 360 and maybe the PS3 will. The Wii's market share could even drop to between 47-48%. 

What do you guys think???

Unlikely. Nintendo could have if they made more of them the first couple of years but it's too late and people had to settle for 360 and PS3s and so 360s and PS3s received more 3rd party support than they would have if Nintendo managed over 50%.

ya know, I really thought Wii would have 50% market share in 2009, but lackluster sales really hurt it along with a much better than anticipated year for the PS3 (when making my predictions back in 2008).

I think the Wii has a shot this year (as shown by your numbers), but I'm less optimistic now. So Maybe, but not until Holiday 2010 if it does happen.

The Wii sells enough in the holiday season. Its the other 10 months it doesn't quite make it.

Prrrrrobably not

It won't happen

I see I'm the only optimist

In Nintendo's perfect scenario, Wii goes back up by 1m units YoY, and the X360 and PS3 drop by 10% YoY, that would be right about the 3.35m needed for the Wii to pass 50%.

Not very likely, but what if Natal turns into a major flop (bigger than the Power Glove ) and PSWand is released to 0 support? So, not that I really think it will happen, but it's not like it should be ruled out completely

It depends on what Nintendo can release to maintain momentum. We don't know of what's upcoming, so many think there isn't any.

They all forget we didn't know about NSMBWii this time last year.

This is why I think predicting sales trends for the Wii over the course of an entire year is somewhat foolhardy

And why it's going to be the subject of the very first podcast I make

I highly doubt the wii can reach 50% this year. Two things hinder it: natal's success and in the case of a natal flop, a 360 price drop. It's gonna have to sell a lot more than the ps3 and 360 combined all year long which I just don't see happening.