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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Did SMG Tank? Or will it fall in line with historical expectations?

fkusumot on 05 November 2007
johnsobas said:
i think 350k is too high though, 20% is reasonable though.

 Well they're all just fun numbers now. Adjust as you will to come to your own conclusions. I just made this up as a tool to educate people on how first week number and percentage of first week sales to LTD can be adjusted to show what different outcomes may occur. Then a reasonable person can consider what is more likely or not. Now using this tool I think people can make much more accurate predictions and have more reasonable expectations.



I Blame Wii Fit!

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phillipcaesar on 05 November 2007

Thanks for the charts btw. Will refer to again.



fkusumot on 05 November 2007
phillipcaesar said:
Thanks for the charts btw. Will refer to again.

 Use them to fight the good fight. It's always nice, in a battle of wits, to have a few hard numbers to throw around.



I Blame Wii Fit!

Rubang B on 05 November 2007

Awesome charts. Too bad ALL the games between Mario 64 and Galaxy were embarassments.



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fkusumot on 05 November 2007
Rubang B said:
Awesome charts. Too bad ALL the games between Mario 64 and Galaxy were embarassments.

 Ah, no love for NSMB? At least that one didn't embarrass fiduciarily. My niece loves that one like I loved the first SMB. If you got an idea for another cool chart let me know.



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Rubang B on 05 November 2007

I didn't make it clear enough that I was trying to call every game an embarrassment, Nintendo or not, and including Smash Bros. Meleel. I was referring to the embarrassment quote from Eurogamer's review, which has its own thread.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=9606

"Super Mario Galaxy is an embarrassment. It's an embarrassment for platform games. It's an embarrassment for adventure games. It's an embarrassment for Nintendo and an embarrassment for the Wii. What have we all been playing at in the ten years since Super Mario 64 came out? This is what gaming ought to be like."

I liked NSMB. I just thought it was too short.

I can't believe Majora's Mask actually flopped hard enough to sell more than half its LTD in Japan in the first week. That's ridiculous.



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Parokki on 05 November 2007

First week sales were surprisingly low, but the holidays will be here soon, and Japan has been weird lately anyway. I'll be worried if the same happens in the US/Europe, and even then it'll sell better than SUP MA SUSHI due to the Wii being so much stronger than the Gamecube.



loadedstatement on 05 November 2007

Gamestop said on September 12 that SMG preorders were at 400,000. Just think of how many more they have a month and a half later. Im guessing around 600,000 now. Not to mention everyone who is buying from other sources (amazon.com, TRU, Target, walmart, etc). Also not to mention those who will walk into Gamestop in the first week and try to buy the game. Im guessing SMG will have a very good debut in the USA.



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vizunary on 05 November 2007
loadedstatement said:
I think the game will have incredible legs. And honestly, maybe a lot are waiting until its closer to the holidays to buy the game. Granted Xmas isnt as big over there. In fact, xmas is more of a commercial holiday in Japan. The major religion in Japan is Buddhism and Shinto, so Christmas is more commercial event. The main celebration revolves around Christmas eve and not Christmas day. It is still common for people to give Xmas gifts though.

hell, nowhere in the world is christmas more of a capitalist event than in the US, they just don't bother to pretend that it's anything else in Japan. OT: i figured sales(lifetime) would be higher, maybe 17-20% total userbase for a title like this???

Sqrl on 05 November 2007
ioi said:
1. 350 k for week 1 is too high, 300k is more like it
2. All your other data is misleading. Use the data on here. The further back in time you go the less and less accurate data from Famitsu / Media Create is.
3. There are more factors to consider than just week one and ltd ratio, is it released around a holiday period? How far into the life of the system is it released?
4. For what it's worth, 2m - 2.5m is a pretty safe bet at the moment.

@point #4,

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought 1.8m was a low end number. I think the launch week is dissapointing only from the perspective of a bunch of people who way way overhyped the game in their minds. Myself included.

In any case I am looking forward to seeing how the game does in the US, but more importantly i am looking forward to PLAYING IT!

 
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